On 6 September, elections to the state parliament began in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt. The outcome could see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) take power at state level for the first time since the Second World War.
Under the leadership of 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD has been leading in the polls for several months. According to surveys, the party could win more than 40% of the vote. In second place is Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at around 23%.
In theory, the AfD could secure an absolute majority in the state parliament. That would allow the party to form a government on its own, despite the stance of other major parties, which refuse to cooperate with the far right.
At the same time, an outright majority is an unlikely scenario under Germany’s proportional electoral system. If the AfD does not win enough votes, the CDU is most likely to form the government, led by Saxony-Anhalt’s incumbent Minister-President, Sven Schulze.
After the election, lengthy coalition talks may begin. Their outcome will depend, among other things, on which parties clear the 5% threshold.
Forecasts suggest the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which is part of the current coalition, may fail to enter parliament. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is polling at under 10%.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is also in doubt over whether it will make it into parliament. It is the only party that does not rule out cooperation with the AfD.
For the CDU, forming a majority together with the SPD and the Greens could also prove difficult. At the same time, the Christian Democrats reject a coalition with the Left.
One possible scenario could be a minority government led by Schulze, dependent on the Left’s passive support. A similar model is already in place in the neighbouring state of Thuringia.
Preliminary election results are expected on the evening of 6 September, shortly after polling stations close.
For the AfD, the vote in Saxony-Anhalt is important in the context of its plans to win power at federal level in the next parliamentary election, scheduled for 2029.
The election is also being closely watched for its impact on the standing of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, whose approval rating has been falling recently. Merz has sought to counter the AfD’s popularity, including by tightening policy on migration and security.
“Regardless of the results of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history. Because what we started here in Saxony-Anhalt, what is now spreading across Germany, can no longer be stopped,” Siegmund said at a rally on 5 September.
At the same time, even with a strong result the AfD may remain out of government. Since 2021, the party has been under surveillance by Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution over suspicions of right-wing extremism, and other leading political forces maintain a “firewall” policy against cooperating with it.