Russian forces are increasingly focused on advancing on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of the Lyman, - reported by the American Institute for the Studies of the War [ISW].
The occupiers are advancing in and around Severodonetsk.
"Russian forces are likely hoping to advance on Lysychansk from Toshkivka in order to avoid having to fight across the Severskyi Donets River from Severodonetsk," the May 31 key conclusions said.
Russian grouping in Kherson Oblast is likely feeling the pressure of the limited Ukrainian counteroffensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast, especially as much of the russian operational focus is currently on the capture of Severodonetsk.
"Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River,” analysts said.
If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack.
"This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But russian president vladimir putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains. Continuing successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson indicate that Ukraine’s commanders recognize these realities and are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities that Putin’s decisions have created,” the report said.
ISW added that a competent Ukrainian alignment of priorities in counter-offensive and defense operations pushed the russians almost out of artillery range of Kharkiv City and stopped the russian offensive from Izyum - both of which are more important than the defense of Severodonetsk.
"Ukraine’s leadership has had to make incredibly difficult choices in this war and has generally made the right ones, at least at the level of strategic prioritization and in the pace, scale, and ambitiousness of its counter-offensives. That is why Ukraine still has a good chance to stop and then reverse the gains russia is currently making," the report added.