In 2027, Moscow plans to allocate about 17.1 trillion roubles (approximately $206.2bn) to so-called “national defence”. This is 42.8% more than the military spending planned for 2026, when the figure stands at 12.1 trillion roubles (approximately $144.4bn).
This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence.
According to forecasts, in 2027 Russia’s military spending will amount to 6.9% of GDP, or 35.2% of total federal budget expenditure.
For the procurement of weapons and military equipment for the occupying forces, the Kremlin plans to allocate 12.1 trillion roubles (approximately $146.3bn) – 55% of the funds earmarked for the war.
To finance the war against Ukraine, Moscow plans to increase the tax burden on the public and businesses. By the Kremlin’s estimates, this will bring an additional 1.5 trillion roubles (approximately $18.1bn) into the budget.
At the same time, Russia intends to cut spending by 25% on the maintenance of road and municipal infrastructure, and also reduce funding for social and other civilian needs in the regions.
In particular, spending under the “Social Policy” line is planned to be reduced by 6.4%, “Housing and Utilities” – by 8.3%, and “National Economy” and “Healthcare” – by 3.1% each.
Russia also plans in 2027 to reduce funding for the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to 293.8bn roubles (approximately $3.5bn). This is 4.5% less than planned for 2026.
Oil and gas revenues for Russia’s federal budget are forecast at 7 trillion roubles (approximately $84.4bn), which is 7.7% less than in 2026.
The officially planned budget deficit is 2.2% of GDP. However, according to estimates by Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, it could almost double – to nearly 4% of GDP, or 9–10 trillion roubles (approximately $108.5–120.6bn).
Domestic borrowing is expected to be the main source for covering the deficit. In 2027, it is planned to be increased to more than 6 trillion roubles (approximately $74.1bn).
A similar trend is already being observed in 2026: the volume of domestic loans exceeded 5 trillion roubles (approximately $60.5bn), which is 26% more than the initially planned 3.98 trillion roubles (approximately $48bn).
Due to increased borrowing, Russia’s domestic public debt by 2029 could rise to 62.1 trillion roubles (approximately $748.9bn), or 22% of GDP. At the start of 2026, this figure stood at 14.3% of GDP.
Intelligence officials add that the Kremlin continues to increase spending on the war against Ukraine by cutting funding for civilian needs, increasing tax pressure and expanding public debt. The financial burden of the war is increasingly being shifted onto Russia’s population and businesses.
- Earlier, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported that Russia’s federal budget deficit for the first nine months of 2026 amounted to 5.186 trillion roubles, or 2.2% of GDP. This is 37% more than the Russian authorities had planned to spend in excess of revenues for the entire year.