The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has analysed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to introduce a ceasefire in Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Region, modelled on the recent truce in occupied Oleshky in Kherson Region.
Analysts stress that the situation on these two fronts differs significantly, so repeating such a scenario in Kostiantynivka would be extremely difficult.
In Oleshky, Russian forces have full control of the city, which is located about 3.7 kilometres from the front line. As a result, it was enough for the sides to agree to halt strikes across the Dnipro in order to deliver humanitarian aid and evacuate civilians.
By contrast, in Kostiantynivka Russian forces do not control the city and are in direct contact with Ukrainian units. Active fighting is ongoing there.
In ISW’s assessment, organising negotiations, monitoring compliance with any agreements, and ensuring a ceasefire under such conditions would be extremely difficult.
Analysts believe Putin is trying to persuade US officials to accept Russia’s version of the situation at the front.
During a meeting with the US President’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, he repeated the claim that Russian forces supposedly have full control of Kostiantynivka and proposed organising a “humanitarian mission” there.
ISW notes that the Kremlin has made similar statements before, seeking to portray exaggerated successes by the Russian army. According to the analysts, as of 1 September 2026 at least 41 Ukrainian positions were recorded in and around Kostiantynivka. This refutes Moscow’s claim of full control over the city.
In the analysts’ view, Putin may be relying on an inflated picture of the fighting shaped by Russia’s military command and amplified by state media.
ISW suggests the Kremlin may be seeking to use a temporary ceasefire in Kostiantynivka to build up troops and resources ahead of further advances northwards — towards Druzhkivka. The city is one of the most heavily fortified points in Ukraine’s defensive line known as the “belt of fortresses”.
Analysts also point out that Russian forces are already evacuating civilians from those parts of Kostiantynivka that they do in fact control. In their view, this may indicate that Moscow is pursuing a ceasefire primarily for military rather than humanitarian reasons.
ISW recalls that during the previous truce in Oleshky Russia used the pause to build up forces and assets along the Dnipro. Analysts do not rule out that Russian forces may try to repeat such a scenario in Kostiantynivka as well.
- The Office of the President of Ukraine has also highlighted the risk of a humanitarian initiative being used for military purposes. It said that during the truce in Oleshky the Russian side brought in equipment and rotated troops under the cover of a humanitarian operation.