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Danilov: Kremlin plans to undermine Ukraine via civil confrontation, elections

This is intended to shake up society and destabilise the Defence Forces.

Danilov: Kremlin plans to undermine Ukraine via civil confrontation, elections
Photo: Facebook/NSDC

Russia has changed its tactics from a short-term to a long-term war. It is counting on a boa constrictor effect - a gradual increase in pressure and suppression - but has left its strategic goal unchanged: the destruction of the Ukrainian state, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, has said in an op-ed for UP.

In his view, Putin believes that he can wait out unfavourable external circumstances, "but history has seen many such 'immortals' - some peed themselves at their dacha in Kuntsevo (Stalin - Ed.), others were hanged on scaffolds".

"Putin's new plan, developed by a group of Kremlin experts, is based on three factors that determine the strength of Ukrainian resistance and national resilience: Ukrainian unity, Western support, and the motivation and combat capability of the Ukrainian Defence Forces. Ukrainian unity, according to Russian analysts, is a key factor and cornerstone of resilience. Shifting it can trigger a domino effect," Danilov said.

Without chaos in the internal situation in Ukraine, it is impossible to achieve the enemy's military goals. The ideal situation for Russia, according to Danilov, is for Ukraine to return to a state of uncontrollability and complete anarchy, as in 1917-1921, when the war was waged from the outside and inside.

"Russia remembers this period of Ukrainian history well and hopes for its repetition," he said.

According to him, in order to create the necessary conditions for internal political destabilisation, the Russian plan includes a number of successive steps - military, information, and political. Some of these measures are already in place, others are in the pipeline.

The military measures are to intensify pressure on all key areas of the frontline in order to maximise the impact on Ukrainian military positions.

"At the same time, panic is being spread through Kremlin-controlled Telegram channels about 'huge' losses, 'failure' of mobilisation, 'exhaustion' of human resources, military corruption, etc.", he said.

In addition, the Russians are preparing a new "missile terror" for the winter. They are amassing significant amounts of missile weapons needed to destroy energy and oil refinery infrastructure, communications and the Internet, logistics hubs and transport hubs.

Danilov also believes that the Russians, through Putin's agent channels and various "useful idiots", are conducting an information campaign to artificially create and demonstrate an alleged conflict in the country's top military and political leadership.

All of these measures are intended to create a critically negative public backdrop. Danilov believes that under such a plan, civil confrontation is the most desirable scenario for the Kremlin, "but elections will do too".

"According to the Russian plan, the elections will result in the revival and election of the 'fifth column' to the Ukrainian parliament, the electoral list of which is being formed before our eyes from various 'saboteur coaches', 'specialists' in 'good Russians', defenders of the Russian language, 'women for peace' and 'men against war'," he said.

As a result of these measures, the main outcome will be the undermining of the public consensus of Ukrainian unity, which should lead to the destruction of Western support and undermine the morale and combat capability of the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

If this scenario materialises, the US and European allies will have only one option: to appeal to Russia to admit their own mistakes in the Ukrainian issue and to de jure recognise the enemy's rights to Ukraine as an exclusively Russian zone of interest.

"All of this, I would like to emphasise, is still largely the imagination of Moscow's authors, but the threat cannot be underestimated. Certain stages of the outlined Russian plan are already being implemented, and all security and defence agencies are working to counter it, but our efforts will be multiplied if we have society on our side," Danilov added.

As reported earlier, Danilov is one of the politicians who oppose holding elections until the war is over.

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