The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, believes that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has entered a critical period. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a plan for the global redistribution of the world, and with regard to Ukraine, he has focused on internal destabilisation, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service wrote in an article for Interfax-Ukraine, excerpted by Radio Liberty.
The redistribution, according to Putin's plan, could last 10-15 years and "be accompanied by conflicts of various scales and intensity, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons". The war in Ukraine is one of the fronts.
"Moreover, the war against Ukraine is currently perceived by the Kremlin as an important, but not the only front for Russia, which is actually waging a world war with the United States and the West as a whole," Lytvynenko said.
According to him, the Kremlin plans to solve four problems.
The first is to ensure internal stability, mobilise the population and economy, and increase the production of weapons and military equipment. In particular, in 2026, Russia wants to reach the volume of military production capable of supporting large-scale high-intensity hostilities, and in 2028 - to restore the military capabilities it had before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The second is to form a coalition of states alternative to the West. This Global South+ format should promote alternative models to the West - political, economic, financial, humanitarian, and value-based.
Thirdly, to prepare for future aggression against other countries. The priority is Moldova and the Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The reason is the violation of the rights of Russian speakers (primarily in Latvia and Estonia).
Fourthly, to foment conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans.
With regard to Ukraine, Lytvynenko said, Russia's plans have not changed: to seize as much territory as it can. At the same time, the Kremlin, at the suggestion of the FSB, decided to adjust its tactics, focusing on the internal undermining of Ukraine and the destabilisation of Ukrainian society.
Lytvynenko says that Russia has three objectives:
- pressure along the entire front line with the capture of certain politically and media important points, including Avdiyivka
- destruction of critical infrastructure (power plants, oil refineries, transport hubs) in winter to make it impossible for civilians to live normally
- undermining social unity by fuelling ambitions and provoking the military and opposition political forces
"Russians do not care who comes to power after the current leadership. They are convinced that no matter who it is, they will not be able to control the situation, and Ukraine will plunge into chaos. In the end, the West will not only suspend aid, but will also come to Russia with proposals for urgent negotiations and a suspension of the war," the foreign intelligence chief wrote.