The National Bank predicts that the expected increase in electricity tariffs will be a significant pro-inflationary factor, LIGA.net reports with reference to the NBU's inflation report.
Since 2022, Ukraine has had a moratorium on raising tariffs for heating, hot water and gas. The law stipulates that during the martial law period and for six months after it ends, the price of natural gas for household consumers should remain at the pre-war level.
Unlike gas, electricity tariffs for households are to be raised due to Russia's destruction of almost all thermal generation. In early April, Valeriy Tarasyuk, chairman of the National Energy and Utilities Commission, said that changes in the tariff issue could be difficult.
"This forecast assumes a fairly rapid and significant increase in electricity prices. This will create additional pressure on prices and the need to increase subsidies for the population," the NBU said.
"Postponing decisions on raising utility tariffs will lead to lower inflation, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state-owned energy companies. This will increase the risks of instability in the domestic energy market, worsen the investment potential of the industry, while price pressure will only be postponed to the future," the report says.