Russia is now significantly weaker economically than it was at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is facing labour shortages, a growing federal budget deficit and a worsening situation in the banking sector, but it still has sufficient resources to continue the war. This was stated by Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in an interview with Ukrinform.
Ukrainian intelligence does not rule out that the Russia’s resources could last for the next two years as well. To reduce them, Ukraine needs to work jointly with its partners.
“Sanctions must genuinely work. We understand which countries supply the Russian Federation with electronic components, machine tools and specialised chemicals. Many shell companies are emerging that bring into Russia what then fuels its war machine against us,” the head of military intelligence said.
According to Oleh Ivashchenko, it is currently difficult to say whether Russia will develop sufficient protest potential among the population, although discontent is expected to grow.
“But already more than 60% of people are against the war. This is a consequence of the economic situation and the enemy’s heavy human losses. We can say that Russia’s model of recruiting contract soldiers has largely run its course. We see that regional budgets in Russia are no longer able to keep funding the payments used to recruit contract soldiers. At the same time, Russian troop losses are rising,” he said.