The self-proclaimed Belarus president Oleksandr Lukashenko is presumably balancing between supporting the russian invasion of Ukraine and his desire to avoid direct participation because of the risk of Western sanctions, Ukrainian revenge, and the Belarussian military's possible dissatisfaction.
This is stated in the daily report of Great Britain's intelligence.
After exercises at the beginning of May Belarus declared the deployment of special operation forces along the border with Ukraine as well as the units of air defence, artillery, and rocket forces at the training areas in the western part of the country.
"The presence of Belarusian forces near the border will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy in support of operations in the Donbas," – the report reads.
The British military points out that despite the previous assumptions, the Belarus forces aren't directly involved in the conflict as of today. But the country's territory was used as a foothold for the initial russia's offensive on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Russia also carried out air flights and missile strikes from Belarus.
"Belarusian President Lukashenko is likely balancing support for Russia’s invasion with a desire to avoid direct military participation with the risk of Western sanctions, Ukrainian retaliation, and possible dissatisfaction in the Belarusian military," – the British intelligence notes.
At the same time, russian agency TASS reported on the morning of 16 May, that Lukashenko had gone to Moscow on a working visit. It is expected that he will participate in the Collective Security Treaty Organization's jubilee summit and hold talks with the rf's president volodymyr putin.