The Russian occupiers have not fulfilled the plans declared at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. But, given their symbolism, the enemy is willing to escalate. According to intelligence, there may be offensive attempts in the East and South.
Currently, the largest concentration is observed in the East, Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.
"The Russians tried the tactic of simultaneously seizing Ukraine in February last year. It did not work. That is, the resources were scattered, they lost many elite units. Now they have a new tactic - concentrated, creeping attempts, little by little, ten metres at a time, to capture, push back, force out," he explained.
According to the Minister of Defence, there is no risk that the enemy will attack from all sides again. Last year, the Russians attacked from all sides with tank columns.
"Today, we have an understanding of where and how many troops they have concentrated. Yes, we can see that there are certain concentrations, but, for example, we do not observe anything extraordinary in the Belarus area. This does not mean that it cannot change. We are currently counting up to 12,000 Russian troops there, and there is also a corresponding amount of equipment," he added.
The minister noted that the enemy has the most sizable groups in the East and South. They are concentrating to use different tactics.
"They are using assault units in the Bakhmut area. And they have been systematically moving there for 5 months, losing loads of people and equipment. If we say that there may be offensive attempts somewhere, our intelligence, the General Staff and our partners say that it may be in the East and South," he added.
The minister explained that a repeat attack on Kherson would be difficult for the Russians because they burned all the bridges and crossings while fleeing, so now they would have to move troops across the Dnipro under Ukrainian fire. Therefore, it is likely that the Russians will attack the Zaporizhzhya area by land.
"Their dream is to extend the land corridor to Crimea to continue supplying. So, of course, these are the key risks: East, South, and then the North. These are the risks that exist. They need to be assessed, calmly, without panic. I don't want the public to think that "everything" is a no," the minister emphasized.