Diplomats and officials are optimistic on the negotiations between the Commission and Budapest over the €50 billion fund for Ukraine, which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is still blocking, Politico's Brussels Playbook stated.
Several EU countries said pressure was mounting on Orbán, and believed he was ready to strike a deal.
"He needs to be the bad boy, but he can’t go overboard," one diplomat said.
Another cited the Article 7 procedure, saying calls to move forward with stripping Orbán of his voting rights were slowly growing in the Council
The EU was unwilling to grant Orbán another opportunity to wield his veto by including a midterm review of the Ukraine fund in 2025. Instead, the EU is now eyeing an “emergency brake” for the Ukraine funds, along the lines of the emergency brake in the EU’s Covid recovery fund. That clause allows a country to escalate questions about the fund to leaders’ level, if they believe there is a problem — but offers no veto powers. If any country triggers the brake, leaders have to discuss the topic at their next summit.
Hungary last year proposed a “midterm review” of the Ukraine fund — which would give Orbán another opportunity to veto it in 2025. Other countries turned down the Hungarian proposal, saying it undermined the goal of the fund to give Kyiv some predictability for the coming years. But in recent weeks, the Commission and EU countries have been looking for a compromise with Hungary, as they would still prefer to set the fund up as part of the EU budget, rather than among 26 EU countries.
Diplomats said they expected negotiations with Hungary to continue until the next leaders’ summit on 1 February.