Ukraine is currently in a state of uncertainty. So far, there are two most realistic scenarios for how the situation could develop.
The first is a continuation of the hot, active phase of the war, with Russia trying to put pressure on Ukraine and exhaust its human, technical and financial resources. This was announced by Ilya Pavlenko, representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, during a discussion organised by LB and EGI Group as part of the New Country project.
“The second is the fading of the active phase of the war. This will require us to rebuild a new security architecture. The return of people from abroad, the return of capital, work with veterans,” he listed.
However, “as long as Russia has the opportunity to advance even a little, it will not stop,” the intelligence representative emphasised.
He believes that everything depends on Ukraine’s actions, its ability to ensure defence capability, technical development, and countering Russia’s PSYOP.
“All the levers are, most likely, in our hands. If we build such an architecture, a system of security levers that will be less dependent on the state of assistance from partners, then we will stop the enemy and create prospects for Ukraine’s sustainable growth in the face of constant challenges. Even if the hot phase subsides, it will not mean the end of the war,” he explained.
When it comes to security, it is not only about the army and the front line, but also other components: a healthy economy, cyber security, information stability, and social unity. This is the shield that will allow us to build a path to stable development for the country in the future.
The challenges for Ukraine are multidimensional, the DIU representative emphasised. These include the hot phase of the war, the uncertainty of international support, and internal resilience – the ability of institutions to function without disruption, the economy, and a society that does not lose motivation.
“We need to lay all these challenges into the foundation of long-term security infrastructure,” Pavlenko noted.
He stressed that security is not the sole responsibility of the security forces. It must be the philosophy of the state.