Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may resort to a direct provocation against the United Kingdom and its NATO allies as early as the coming months.
This was reported by the Daily Mail, citing sources in British intelligence.
According to the outlet, British security services believe the Kremlin may try to test the resolve of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s new government, and also take advantage of the fact that U.S. President Donald Trump is currently largely focused on the situation around Iran.
“There is now a firm belief that Putin is preparing some kind of direct confrontation with NATO that could take place over the next few months,” the outlet quotes a British intelligence source as saying.
Daily Mail sources also note that Moscow is already changing the routes of its so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. After one of the vessels was intercepted by British marines in the English Channel, Russian tankers began passing through waters north of the Shetland Islands in an attempt to avoid scrutiny.
Additional concern was raised by live-fire drills conducted by a Russian frigate about 74 kilometers south of Plymouth on the very day Andy Burnham took office as prime minister. At the same time, intelligence sources suggest Russia may be preparing far larger-scale provocative actions.
British security services assess that one of the Kremlin’s motives is Russia’s difficult situation on the front line in Ukraine.
“There is a sense that if he cannot somehow change the course of events on the battlefield, the war will be lost,” the source said.
Against the backdrop of these assessments, the United Kingdom has also tightened security measures due to threats from Iran to attack British military bases that could be used by U.S. forces. In particular, British security services are conducting a large-scale operation to protect RAF Fairford air base.
The UK’s new defence secretary, Wes Streeting, said after talks with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth that London is ready to defend the country around the clock against air and missile threats.
He also stressed that Russia should have no doubt about the British government’s determination to counter any manifestations of Russian aggression—both against Ukraine and against the United Kingdom and its allies.
According to Streeting, this week the government invested more than £700 million in a programme to develop modern fighter jets and advance defence technologies, strengthening the country’s defence capability.