Russia’s energy revenues in the first nine months of 2026 fell by 17%, despite the price of Russian oil rising to its highest level in more than a decade. The reason was a drop in production and exports.
Reuters reports this, citing data from Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
According to the Russian agency, tax receipts from oil and natural gas production in January–September totalled 5.47 trillion roubles ($64.43bn). Over the same period last year, the figure reached 6.61 trillion roubles.
The oil and gas sector provides about 20% of Russia’s budget tax revenues. At the same time, current forecasts put the Russian budget deficit in 2026 at 3% of GDP – almost twice the planned level.
According to LSEG, at the end of September the price of Russia’s Urals oil exceeded $92 a barrel. On 8 April it reached $113.89 a barrel – the highest level since 2013. Prices rose amid supply disruptions from the Middle East.
At the same time, high prices failed to offset the decline in production volumes. Last month, Russia cut its 2026 forecast for oil and gas production and exports. The revised oil production forecast was the lowest in the past 17 years.
One factor behind the drop in exports was problems at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. According to traders, the port operated below capacity last month due to security risks after a series of Ukrainian attacks and a shortage of tankers.
Russia’s oil industry has also suffered losses due to regular Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. This forced plants to cut output and caused fuel shortages in a number of Russian regions.
According to OPEC, in August oil production in Russia fell by more than 5.6% – to 8.718 million barrels per day from 9.240 million barrels per day in January.
Russia’s revenues are also affected by the strengthening rouble. In January–August 2026, the Russian currency was on average 9% stronger against the dollar than in the same period of 2025. As a result, the rise in the oil price in rouble terms was significantly smaller.
- The value of Russia’s seaborne oil exports in the week to 27 September reached $2.75bn, the highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Russia has lost the diesel market.