2026 could become the hottest year on record, amid the effects of global warming and the El Niño climate phenomenon.
This is the forecast of the independent US research group Berkeley Earth, the BBC reports.
Even though there are still two months left until the end of the year, there is a 95% probability that 2026 will surpass the previous record set in 2024.
Last week, the EU’s Copernicus climate service confirmed that October was the hottest on record.
Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth warned that this is only the beginning. “In the future, much larger-scale and more dramatic changes are possible,” he said.
The main reason for the rise in global temperatures is the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels.
Today, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its own report. Although its forecasts are more cautious than Berkeley Earth’s, the organisation expects 2026 to rank among the four warmest years on record.
According to the WMO, the situation will not improve in 2027. El Niño will continue into next year, contributing to further temperature rises.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said this gives new meaning to the phrase “off the charts”.
It is worth noting that this summer in Europe more than 50,000 people died due to heatwaves. Large areas of North America were blanketed by smog from wildfires. In Nepal, a glacier collapse triggered a landslide that led to the deaths of more than 1,500 people.
- Today in Antalya, the 31st UN Climate Change Conference officially gets under way (COP31) and will run until 20 November. Dozens of world leaders and representatives from nearly 190 countries are gathering in Turkey to take part in the climate talks.
- Unusually, the summit will have two hosts: it will be held in Antalya, Turkey, but Australia will oversee the substantive part of the negotiations and the final resolutions.
- Developing countries and civil society will seek to make climate finance and justice central themes of the conference negotiations.