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NYT: Classified US documents on Ukraine war plans leaked online

NYT: Classified US documents on Ukraine war plans leaked online
Photo: Ukrainian General Staff

Classified military documents on US and NATO plans to build up the Ukrainian army ahead of a planned counter-offensive were published on social media this week. The New York Times reported this with reference to senior officials in the administration of President Joe Biden.

The Pentagon is investigating who might have been behind the leaked documents, which appeared on Twitter and Telegram. They were distributed by Russian sources and have apparently been altered: the assessment of Ukrainian military losses is overstated while Russian losses are understated compared to the original document.

For example, it is stated that between 16,000 and 17,500 Russians were allegedly killed, while Ukrainian losses are estimated at 71,500 Ukrainians. The Pentagon and other analysts have said that Russia has suffered much higher losses, approaching 200,000, if both the dead and the wounded are counted. At the same time, Ukraine, according to their estimates, has more than 100,000 dead and wounded.

The changes may indicate an attempt at disinformation by Moscow. But the release of the original documents, which look like photographs of schedules of expected arms shipments, troop and battalion numbers, and other plans, represents a significant breach of US intelligence in its efforts to help Ukraine.

The published documents did not contain specific battle plans, such as the time and place of a counter-offensive. They described Ukrainian needs as of 1 March.

"To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst, however, the documents no doubt offer many tantalizing clues and insights. The documents mention, for instance, the expenditure rate of HIMARS — American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems, which can launch attacks against targets like ammunition dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops, from a distance. The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARS munitions; the documents do," The New York Times said.

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