How much coal has Ukraine stored?
The Razumkov Center estimates that the coal deficit is about 500,000 tons: 1.3mn tons are currently in stock, while 1.8mn tons are needed. However, there is still time to replenish stocks - according to the government's plans, the warehouses should be filled by mid-October.
Private companies that own thermal power plants report importing coal as their own production is not enough. "DTEK is importing 210,000 tons of coal to make the heating season more stable. The use of Ukrainian coal remains a priority for us. However, at a time when the Russian occupiers are trying to destroy the Ukrainian energy system, imported fuel will strengthen us," the company's press service said.
The state-owned Centrenergo company, which owns three large thermal power plants that supply electricity to millions of Ukrainians, also plans to buy coal abroad. Centrenergo officials do not exclude the possibility that they will have to use more than just coal. "We need to reach a volume of at least 80,000 tons of coal per month (of supplies). That would be a sufficient reserve. But we are developing different scenarios and preparing as much as possible. And if it is not enough, we have substitutes today - gas and fuel oil," said Andriy Churkin, CEO of Centrenergo.
Coal reserves decreased in summer
In the first week of September, coal stocks in warehouses increased by almost 4%. In the summer, the process was reversed.
"Due to high temperatures over the last two months of summer, coal stocks in warehouses slightly declined, but we have already signed the relevant contracts, including imports, and we will be fully provided with coal in the required volume," said Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.
The decrease in coal reserves in the summer was caused not only by the heat, but also by active preparations for the second heating season amid the war.
"Some nuclear power units were in scheduled operation, and additional thermal generation was needed to cover the balance needs. At that time, we also saw that we had significant imports. That is, this is the first generation component when we used coal to support the power system," explained Olha Babiy, a member of the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities.
Centrenergo: failed winterisation and management change
In August, the State Property Fund replaced the head of Centrenergo due to poor preparation for the heating season. There were problems both with the accumulation of fuel reserves and with repairs to the stations themselves. Meanwhile, roughly all of the company's top management has been replaced.
Layoffs have also started at Centrenergo's thermal power plants. In particular, Zmiyivska TPP, one of the largest in Ukraine, got a new manager.
If there is not enough coal, will we burn gas?
According to Naftogaz's forecasts, from August to the end of the year, thermal power plants may burn up to 1.2bn cu.m. of natural gas. However, the company did not specify whether these figures are based on sufficient reserves of other fuels at thermal power plants.
The Ministry of Energy reported that the gas injection plan was completed ahead of schedule. Ukraine has already stored 14.7bn cu.m. of natural gas in underground storage facilities. And as Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov told the European industry publication ICIS, "by 1 November, more than 16bn cu.m. of gas will be pumped into the storage facilities, of which 3bn cu.m. will belong to non-resident companies."
Back in 2020, the Ministry of Energy proposed to ban gas flaring at thermal power plants. The Ministry addressed this proposal to the National Security and Defence Council. No decision was made.
Can Ukraine abandon coal altogether?
The government has such plans. The Ministry of Energy even names an exact date: it should happen by 2035.
"We are working on a gradual abandonment of coal. Technologies in the energy sector do not stagnate, and the gradual replacement of coal over the next 10 years will not be as risky and painful as it was before. This transition is the best way to improve energy and climate security," said Deputy Energy Minister Yaroslav Demchenkov.
Ukraine's international commitments to move away from coal in electricity generation are in line with its international obligations. However, the war seems likely to change plans. The Ministry of Energy has already started talking about the need to increase coal production. They called it an important step for the heating season.
"We are preparing for a difficult winter. The enemy is planning to hit energy facilities. Unfortunately, we had this experience last winter and know how difficult it is," warned Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.
For the first time in six months, Russians damaged energy facilities
It happened on 21 September. Russia attacked facilities in the west and center of the country.
"It cannot be said that this is the beginning of a new massive terrorist wave of targeted attacks on the energy system. Power engineers have no such information and cannot predict the enemy's actions. But we have no illusions. We read the reports of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and know that the enemy is cynical and cruel, having crossed all moral and legal lines long ago. That is why we are preparing for any possible scenario," said Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyy.
Various scenarios are also being worked out by the Ukrainian Defence Forces to protect Ukraine's energy sector from Russian missiles. Some good news: Ukraine will receive new Hepard missile defence systems. They will protect the sky over the country's energy facilities. But it is quite clear that it will not be possible to protect everything and from everything. Therefore, every consumer must be prepared and understand how they will act in the event of power, gas or heat outages.