On 13 December, the joint project of LB.ua and EFI Group, New Country, hosted a discussion on the challenges and prospects facing Ukraine in 2024.
The guests of honour were:
- Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the Defence Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate;
- Serhiy Marchenko, Minister of Finance of Ukraine;
- Serhiy Rakhmanin, member of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence;
- Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board at EFI Group.
Mykhaylo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the presidential office, also joined the discussion.
Issues discussed
- Security: What are the main security challenges Ukraine will face in 2024? Scenarios for the development of events on the battlefield? What does the Ukrainian side confront the enemy with in terms of the experience gained over the past two years? What can Ukraine already teach the world and other foreign intelligence services?
- Economic: Is the Ukrainian economy able to cope with the challenges of the third year of the war? Where can it get the resources? Can we confidently count on the support of our partners in defence and finance in 2024? Does it make sense to militarize the Ukrainian economy? What is needed for this?
- Political: Is Ukrainian politics capable of consolidating in the face of wartime challenges? Could the domestic political situation in 2024 become one of the factors – external and internal – that influence the course of the war? What should Ukraine's domestic policy be in 2024, given the war factor?
"The only thing I can tell you is that the Russian Federation has no plans to wage war in 2025. Perhaps, at the end of 2024, if nothing changes, they will adjust it. But for now, they have no such plans."
"They also have problems. The problems are not so much with public support, because few people are interested in the opinion of the average Russian. The issue is resources, because this war is very expensive. And the resources are not unlimited. It may sound a bit harsh, but we are fighting for someone else's money, and they are fighting for theirs. And they are counting their money, even though it seems that they are not. And very meticulously," said Kyrylo Budanov.
Speaking about forecasts for the next year, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said: "I am not thinking about 2024. The year 2024 is almost here. The issue of technology is a matter of time, when, how, there is a solution, there is a plan B. There is no problem with this. I am more concerned about the year 2025 now."
According to Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board at EFI Group, Ukraine will not be able to "mirror" win the war against Russia, and 2024 should be a year of changes, primarily in the defence sector and in the government's communication with society in particular.
"A small Soviet army will never be able to defeat a large Soviet army. We have to change, to become effective. This effectiveness should be based on making the right decisions, on a very responsible attitude towards soldiers. The fact that Ukraine cares about its soldiers must be transmitted from top to bottom, from communication to reality," said Ihor Liski.
Detailed speeches of all the participants of the discussion (texts and videos) will be published on LB.ua soon.
