Although Avdiyivka spans a small area (29 sq km), Russia has gathered almost 50,000 troops around the town, Col Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, has said, ERR reports.
"This shows the propaganda value of this small settlement for the armed forces and political leadership of the Russian Federation," Kiviselg said.
He added that despite great efforts (constant attacks, air strikes, losses), the Russians failed to capture the city.
"The looming presidential election in the Russian Federation will put even more pressure on the Russian armed forces to achieve some kind of visible tactical victory that can be exaggerated by the media and portrayed as a common victory in the war in Ukraine," the Estonian intelligence chief said, adding that "after the presidential election in March, the possible capture of Avdiyivka will not have the same propaganda effect as before the presidential election".
According to Kiviselg, the inability of Russian troops to capture a settlement could lead to discontent in the Russian armed forces and society after Putin's election.
In general, Russia retains the initiative in ground operations and strikes at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, but has failed to fulfil its operational and tactical tasks, the Estonian intelligence chief concluded.