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Without demographic strategy’s change, Ukraine's population to fall to 25.2mn by 2051

Implementation of a demographic development strategy can help mitigate the demographic crisis and maintain the population at 31.6 million people. 

Without demographic strategy’s change, Ukraine's population to fall to 25.2mn by 2051
Photo: EPA/UPG

In the absence of changes, the population of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, according to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, may decline to 28.9 million people by 1 January 2041 and to 25.2 million by 1 January 2051.

The demographic crisis can be mitigated if the strategy for Ukraine's demographic development until 2040 is implemented, according to the Ministry of Social Policy. The strategy should ensure a decent standard of living and quality of life for every Ukrainian, create conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad and for the reproduction of the population.

"The advantage of the second scenario is to minimise the consequences of the war and mitigate the demographic crisis, which will be reflected in much better demographic dynamics: under this option, the population will be 33.9 million people as of 1 January 2041 and 31.6 million people as of 1 January 2051," the Ministry said.

They added that after the outbreak of full-scale war, the total fertility rate fell to 1.0

In 2021, it was 1.16 - 45% less than the level required for simple population replacement. 

To restore the population, the target fertility rate should be around 2.2. 

In addition to the low birth rate, the demographic crisis in Ukraine is also affected by premature mortality, primarily among men. Life expectancy in Ukraine in 2020 was 71.3 years, the lowest in Europe. 

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