Ukraine has information that the Russian General Staff has already prepared an option for additional mobilisation in 2026–2027. Russia expects to recruit a total of 600,000 people: 300,000 each year. Those to be mobilised are expected to include, among others, law enforcement personnel and a broader range of prisoners serving sentences in prisons and penal colonies.
This information from the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service was published on the President’s website. According to the intelligence services, Russia primarily wants to bring formations and military units fighting against Ukrainians up to strength, as well as units of Russian forces that are currently being formed.
To suppress possible negative social and economic consequences of moving Russian regions into a stricter wartime regime, coercive measures are being prepared. The biggest problems with signing up contract soldiers are evident in Dagestan and the Oryol and Vladimir Regions.
As part of preparations for an additional wave of mobilisation and the recruitment of criminal elements on contracts in Russia, they have already begun changing legislation and subordinate regulations, significantly tightening control over military registration, and creating mechanisms for additional recruitment of people serving sentences in prisons and penal colonies. Additional coercive measures are also being developed.
“The categories of convicted persons who will be recruited for military service in the occupation contingent have been expanded to include people with unspent/unexpunged convictions under 11 articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, including for smuggling poisonous, radioactive and explosive substances, weapons, narcotic substances, and so on; banditry and organising or participating in a criminal group (gang); organising illegal migration; violating safety requirements at fuel and energy facilities and the illegal handling, theft or extortion of nuclear materials or radioactive substances; and other articles of the Criminal Code. The Russian leadership has also approved extending mobilisation processes and/or contract recruitment to certain numerically significant categories of women serving sentences in prisons and penal colonies,” the statement says.
In addition, the setting of quotas for the mobilisation of law enforcement personnel is ongoing.
“It cannot be ruled out that some of those mobilised will be trained at training grounds in the Republic of Belarus,” the intelligence services said.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service, the plan for a new wave of mobilisation is still being worked on. The Kremlin is likely to announce it after the elections on 18–20 September.
Context
During the full-scale war, Russia has officially announced only one wave of mobilisation — in autumn 2022. It wanted to recruit 300,000 reservists. After that, covert mobilisation continued: the ranks of the occupiers kept being replenished, including through foreign contract soldiers.
This summer, the Ukrainian authorities warned of Russia’s intention to announce another wave of mobilisation. The President said it would primarily affect Russia’s regions and would not touch residents of Moscow and St Petersburg. According to available information, the new recruits will be used depending on the situation at the front: Vladimir Putin may throw them either into the capture of Donetsk Region or into an offensive from the north.