At talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia in the UAE, scheduled for November, the parties want to discuss the first de-escalation steps. For Ukraine, the priorities are security issues and, overall, ending the war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists at a meeting on 27 October.
He said that the leaders of Finland and Norway, Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Støre, after a conversation with Vladimir Putin, passed on to him the substance of the discussion. In these leaders’ view, there is a sense that the Russians are seriously minded about the meeting.
Stubb and Støre discussed the topics of the planned conversation with Zelenskyy even before the call to Putin.
“We spoke with them then, but we did not go public with it because it was already night. On Tuesday morning they spoke with the Russian leader, voiced our position and heard his vision,” the head of state explained.
During the meeting of technical groups in the UAE, Ukraine is hoping for a result or steps towards it.
“Specifically, de-escalation steps on energy, as well as at sea, the exchange of prisoners and their return home, and discussion of the format in which a trilateral meeting at leaders’ level could take place. This is the agenda from our side, which we discussed with our American partners. Of course, an important issue is security guarantees for Ukraine. We have such a request to the Americans and Europeans. And Russia is raising the same issue, saying it also needs security guarantees. That is what is known today. Finland and Norway will also communicate with national security advisers from other European countries and other partners to provide a briefing on the conversation,” he said.
The President added that Russia is not raising the issue of security guarantees for the first time, in one format or another, as it sees them.
“They say: ‘If you want security guarantees for Ukraine, then we want them for Russia.’ We need to understand what meaning Russia puts into this. It is not simply about Ukraine not striking them. For them it is a much broader and more specific issue. They want their own treaty with NATO or with the United States as such a fundamental participant in NATO. I do not know all these details fully, but you cannot discuss with Russia any global security guarantees for it until it is clear how and on what basis its war against Ukraine will end, and until we know what security guarantees we will have,” he said.
Zelenskyy believes that Russia’s understanding of security guarantees is a change in the security format in Europe and in the world.
“In my view, when they met with President Biden before the full-scale war began, they discussed exactly this — it was one of the issues. That is why I say it is not a new issue — discussion of their desire to redistribute influence, and therefore security guarantees for the Russian Federation. I do not know how many times Russia has raised this issue, but I think it is precisely the issue they raised with the United States before the full-scale war began,” he said.
When the Russians raise this issue again now, it also concerns NATO’s role.
“Countries that are in NATO — everything is clear for them. They do not have to discuss this with Russia, which is not a NATO member. But Russia may raise the issue again — could there be a NATO pullback, some NATO infrastructure? This is definitely not a question for Ukraine; we are not a member of the Alliance. If we were members, we would say: ‘No, you cannot make concessions on this.’ NATO’s withdrawal from one territory or another, or the removal of some NATO infrastructure, could be a decision of NATO countries. Not Russia’s, but not Ukraine’s either. I believe that any retreat, any security rollback, is weakness for the Alliance. But we have also heard signals from the United States from another angle — about the presence of American soldiers on European territory, possible reductions, and so on,” he said.
Commenting on further talks involving Ukraine, Zelenskyy said that they initially planned to hold a meeting in Brussels with the United States, EU leaders and the NATO Secretary General. They were to discuss preparations for the trilateral meeting, including security guarantees.
“For example, to discuss what security guarantees could be, how we see them for ourselves, and then put all of this on paper and be ready for the agenda of the trilateral meeting. But, as I understand it, Washington has issues regarding the Middle East, so our American partners asked us to change the date so that their representatives could be in Washington at that time. We are waiting for new proposals for such a meeting with the American team,” he said.
At present, the meeting in the UAE depends on the American side. Whether it takes place will be influenced by the situation in the Middle East, since that is where the United States is currently focused.
Zelenskyy explained that the leaders of Norway and Finland initiated the opening of a communication channel with Russia as its neighbouring countries.
“They really are helping — the EU and Europe in a broader circle, because Norway is not a member of the European Union. And when there are security guarantees that Ukraine wants to discuss, and security guarantees that Russia wants to discuss, they consider it a serious challenge for them too — as neighbours of Russia, as European countries, and as serious partners of ours. They want to take a greater part. I have a positive view of these leaders and these countries — we are grateful to them. We are going through a long journey and we are going through it together. The format of their communication is clear to me,” he said.
Zelenskyy believes that last year’s meeting with the American President in Alaska ended Putin’s diplomatic isolation.
“After Alaska there were already communications by Europeans. Just not as openly as the leaders of Norway and Finland did. Everyone understands that there were communications at the level of national security advisers, at the level of intelligence services. Besides Europe, Turkey and countries in the Middle East also communicated. So this is happening. There were communications by some people that we learned about later — after they had taken place. And here it is an absolutely open game — advance discussion, a full briefing, transparent tasks,” he said.