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Ministry of Economy predicts GDP growth at 3% next year

Inflation should slow down to 8.1%.

Ministry of Economy predicts GDP growth at 3% next year

The forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2017 envisages the growth of GDP at 3%, subject to successful economic reforms, Vice-Premier and Economy Minister Stepan Kubiv told a Cabinet meeting on 1 July.

The pessimistic scenario suggests an increase of 1.5%.

In the first case scenario, the nominal size of the GDP will amount to 2.5849 trln hryvnia, in the second - 2.5743 trln.

In the next two years, the GDP growth will average 4% on a more optimistic scenario, or 2% in the pessimistic case.

The inflation rate will be either 8.1% in 2017, December on December, (optimistic), or 10.3% (pessimistic).

The real wages will grow 5.4% (optimistic) or 4% (pessimistic), unemployment - 8.7% (optimistic) or 8.8% (pessimistic).

The Ministry of Economy warned that the main risks to the economic development of Ukraine might be an aggravation in the war in Donbas, a fall in the world commodity prices, an increased in trade restrictions by Russia, devaluation of the hryvnia and inflation, or Ukraine's failure to obtain the planned financing from the IMF.

The economy ministry will recommend to rely on the better scenario during the preparation of 2017 budget.

The economy growth outlook for 2016 is at 1%.

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