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Ukraine's security supremo sees two scenarios for Donbas

He warns against saving on the defence sector.

Ukraine's security supremo sees two scenarios for Donbas
Oleksandr Turchynov
Photo: NSDC press service

The secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov, has said that the Russian strategy is guided by the intention to subjugate Ukraine, therefore the situation can further develop only along two main scenarios: a war or hybrid warfare.

He shared his opinion in his article published by the Holos Ukrayiny parliamentary newspaper.

"Ukraine takes a key place in Russia's aggressive strategy. Without its complete submission to the Kremlin's objectives, the successful continuation of the aggressive foreign policy of the Russian Federation is impossible. Just like almost 100 years ago, Russia needs Ukrainian industrial facilities, especially the defence industry, which the Kremlin has failed to replace in the course of 25 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. To have at least some chance of success in confrontation with NATO, the Russian armed forces need to strengthen their presence on Ukrainian territories, along the bank of the Dnipro Rivet, " he said.

In his opinion, for today's Russia, the struggle for Ukraine is a turning point, the same way it was for "Lenin's RSFSR".

"If the Kremlin succeeds, the European security system will be completely destroyed, and the path further to the West will open for the Russian troops. If Ukraine survives, the war will be stopped from spreading," the NSDC secretary said.

"Judging by the Kremlin's strategic intention to subjugate our country, the situation may develop along the following main scenarios: a military scenario, which involves a full-scale military aggression, which is currently the most problematic and dangerous for the Kremlin itself, but for whose implementation the Russian Armed Forces are incessantly preparing; and a hybrid scenario, which remains the most probable today. This scenario means low-intensity combat actions in Donbas will continue, which does not exclude the possibility of local offensives by Russian regular and irregular units, as well as subversive activities on the rest of the territory of Ukraine," he said.

He stressed that the Russian threat is of a long-term nature therefore counteraction to it is the most important priority for Ukraine's national security policy.

"At the time of the external aggression, the development of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), law-enforcement and intelligence agencies is, without exaggeration, a precondition to the survival of independent Ukraine and its development. We cannot economise on this. We will not need money if we cannot protect the state. Military reform must completely end the Russian-Soviet attitude towards the soldier as cannon fodder and introduce the main principle of NATO, which is the absolute importance of preserving the life of soldiers in combat missions," Turchynov said.