There are approximately 25,000-30,000 Russian and Belarusian military on the territory of Belarus. This grouping cannot ensure a breakthrough in the war against Ukraine, but it can solve certain limited tasks, Mykola Beleskov, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, senior analyst of the Come Back Alive Foundation, has said in an interview with LB.ua.
According to him, the Belarusian army is not ready to perform large-scale tasks independently.
"So far, as far as I understand, there are 10,000-15,000 Russian troops and 12,000-15,000 Belarusian troops on the territory of Belarus. Together we have up to 30,000 at best. These 30,000 can solve a certain range of tasks, but it is unlikely that they will be able to turn the tide in the war in favor of Russia. To create certain problems for us, to distract attention – yes, unfortunately, they can," the expert said.
In his opinion, the main goals of Russia are in Donetsk Region, as its troops are tasked with reaching the administrative borders of this region. Everything else is an attempt to distract Ukrainian forces.
Beleskov also answered the question whether the offensive from Belarus could cut off the land routes of support from Western partners.
"It will be unrealistic to cut them off completely. They may be able to enter from the north, reach certain motorways that are closer to Belarus. To what extent they will be able to hold them is the question. We already have an example from which we can draw conclusions, compare. Significant Russian forces came in, were able to partially cut the Zhytomyr highway, but there was another highway in the south, which went through Vasylkiv, Fastiv. And then the Russian forces were much larger. Now the Russian-Belarusian forces are much smaller. Therefore, these forces will not be possible to completely cut [the highways] off. The maximum they can do is to reach a certain point, understand that they do not have enough strength and go back," the expert added.
Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, said that he had no doubts about the repeated Russian offensive on Kyiv.
According to Lt-Gen Oleksandr Pavlyuk, commander of the Kyiv Defence Forces Group, there is no immediate threat of a repeated enemy invasion of the north of the country from Belarus. The Ukrainian military is considering possible options for aggression in the coming months.