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11 months of war turn every third Ukrainian into migrant - Gradus Research

At the same time, almost half of those who left their permanent residence place have already returned.

11 months of war turn every third Ukrainian into migrant - Gradus Research
Illustrative photo
Photo: SES

The research company Gradus Research has analyzed the dynamics of migration trends in Ukraine since the first days of the full-scale invasion, the company's press service told

Almost half of those who left their place of permanent residence have already returned.

Russia's war against Ukraine has fundamentally or greatly changed the lives of the vast majority of the population - 82% of respondents declare this. Although 61% of Ukrainians remained in their permanent place of residence, others were forced to move to safer places. Of these, 82% migrated within the region or the country, while 18% moved abroad. The vast majority of migrants are residents of the eastern regions.

Almost half of the migrants have already been able to return home: 40% of Ukrainians were forced to leave their permanent residence place, of whom 18% have returned. This is more the case for residents of the northern regions and Kyiv.

When asked about their intentions to move further in the event of an escalation of the situation, the majority of Ukrainians (60%) say they plan to stay where they are now.

Among those who do plan to move further away from the war zone if the situation worsens, 21% of Ukrainians intend to move within Ukraine, and only 7% plan to go abroad (this is the lowest figure for the entire period of measurement since the beginning of the war). However, the number of people planning to move abroad is almost twice as high among residents of the western regions as that of the overall sample.

One third of respondents (32%) who were forced to move abroad because of the war declare their intention to return to Ukraine as soon as possible.

10% of external migrants tend to believe that they have left for good. Most of them are people from the western regions of Ukraine aged 25-34.

At the same time, almost half of the respondents (47%) hesitated to answer because they had not yet made a final decision. Their number has doubled compared to the previous wave of the survey (July 2022 - 24%).

"It is also worth noting that the belief in Ukraine's victory has remained high since the first days of the full-scale war: currently, 87% of Ukrainians are absolutely or rather confident that Ukraine can repel the attack of the Russian Federation. And citizens believe that military assistance from Western countries and the capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the main guarantees of Ukraine's victory," Gradus Research notes.

"To summarize, migration patterns are currently stable. The difficult energy situation in the country and the constant threat of new Russian missile attacks on Ukraine contribute to even greater uncertainty regarding the intentions of Ukrainians to return. However, the desire to return home at the earliest opportunity remains high. The likelihood of a new large wave of migration is low," the press service added.

According to the UN, Russia's war against Ukraine has caused the largest wave of refugees since World War II.

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