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Over 80% of Ukrainians would vote for independence today - poll

"Only about 3% would vote against. About 15% have not made up their mind or would not participate in the referendum."

Over 80% of Ukrainians would vote for independence today - poll

If a referendum on Ukraine's state independence were held today, the vast majority of Ukrainians - at least 82% - would support independence, Serhiy Shapovalov, senior analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, said, presenting the findings of the study "Ukraine's Independence Day: the path to victory, identity and value of the state during wartime" at Ukrinform.

"We asked the question 'If a referendum on the declaration of Ukraine's state independence were held today, how would you vote?' and got the following results: 82% voted in favour, only about 3% voted against, and we have about 15% of those who have not made up their mind or would not participate in the referendum. But the results of both elections and referendums - these percentages - are determined by those who came and gave some kind of answer, so this result will be much higher than 90%, which means it will be much higher in real life. But despite the positive result, I am concerned about those who are undecided because it is one in five," he said.

According to the findings, the highest number of those who would support independence is in the west of the country (94%), whereas in the south and east the figures are 68% and 70% respectively.

Also, the vast majority of Ukrainians - 88.5% - are proud of their citizenship.

At the same time, Shapovalov noted the positive dynamics: whereas in the 2000s there were about half of those who would strongly support Ukraine's independence, after the Russian aggression in 2014, these figures rose to about 65-70%, and now it is more than 80%.

The expert also noted that about half of the Ukrainians surveyed (49%) believe that events in the country are developing in the right direction, about a third said they were developing in the wrong direction, and the rest were undecided.

"According to the dynamics, Ukrainians have always been pessimistic when assessing the situation in the country. And optimism peaked only after the election, when new expectations were placed on the new presidents. However, since December 2022, positive attitudes have prevailed. This is due to the fact that the value of the state has increased significantly amid an existential threat," he explained.

At the same time, Ukrainians tend to be more positive about the events that have taken place since Ukraine's independence against the backdrop of a full-scale invasion: 40.3% of respondents believe that more positive events have occurred over the past 30 years, while another 39.8% said that there have been equal numbers of positive and negative events.

Also, the vast majority of respondents (69%) said that the collapse of the USSR was a positive historical event.

The survey was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in cooperation with the Razumkov Centre sociological service with the support of the MATRA programme funded by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine from 9 to 15 August 2023.

Some 2019 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed face-to-face. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic sample deviations may be caused by the consequences of Russian aggression, in particular, the forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

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