Kharkiv has been and will remain an unattainable goal for the Russians, who do not have the extra 300-350,000 personnel for such an operation.
This was written by Viktor Kevlyuk, an expert at the Centre for Defence Strategies. Analysing the balance of forces and means, the expert notes: "the enemy's North group of up to 53,000 people (according to Russian sources, 62,000) has four distinct components - three border guard groups in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions and a strike group (which the Defence Forces welcomed with all their might on 10 May)."
According to Kevlyuk, the group has up to 30,000 combatants, up to 30% of whom have combat experience. There are about 400 tanks, 1,100 armoured personnel carriers, 1,200 guns, mortars and MLRS.
The Defence Forces have up to 40,000 in the Kharkiv sector and up to 25,000 in the northern parts of the region, in particular in the area of Vovchansk and Velykyy Burluk.
Thus, the expert notes, "the enemy does not have a numerical advantage, although the logistics arm is short and it is possible to transfer replenishment from the training camps in Valuyky, Urazov and Novyy Oskol. Usually, up to 15,000 recruits are canted there per month, while the volume of replenishment for the Sever military unit alone can be 7-8 thousand."
According to Kevlyuk, the main target of this operation is Vovchansk, a large town by Ukrainian standards, located only 5 km from the state border.
Among other reasons for capturing Vovchansk, the Centre for Defence Strategies expert cites technological reasons, as "this is an important area for the entire defence system":
- the city is a logistical hub for another of our groups, so if it is blocked, it will facilitate the actions of another enemy strike group; short, easy, fast logistics of the tactical group from the territory of the Russian Federation;
- no need for manoeuvres of artillery, air defence, command and control elements, aviation - the positions already prepared and occupied are sufficient;
- the tactical depth of the Defence Forces' combat formations in the chosen direction is extremely small, due to the distance from the state border."
At the same time, "Kharkiv is and will remain an unattainable goal for the Russians. They do not have extra 300,000 bayonets for such an operation. They would rather have 350000," Viktor Kevlyuk is convinced.