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Ihor Liski: Just peace is vital – without it, Ukraine risks internal collapse

“War is first and foremost a war of economies,” says Ihor Liski, businessman and chairman of the supervisory board of EFI Group. “Before US President Donald Trump came to power, the situation in the world was more or less clear. There was Russia with a $2 trillion economy, plus Iran, North Korea, and China – which does not help militarily but supports. Against them is the civilised world, roughly defined as Europe, America, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, etc. These are not comparable economic blocs. And if there was a real will from Europe and America, it is clear that Ukraine should win. But Trump has overplayed this story. Now it looks like the Russian economy plus China against the Ukrainian and European economies. And America is looking for its own benefit, saying it is not ready to support Ukraine until complete victory. And this complicates the process.”

What should we do in such circumstances? What are the red lines to follow during peace negotiations? What economic resources do we have? How do we avoid losing the war – let alone the peace? Ihor Liski shared his opinion during the discussion panel “Ukraine’s red lines. How to maintain subjectivity in dialogue with the US and negotiations with Russia” – held as part of the joint project of LB.ua and EFI Group New Country.

Ihor Liski
Photo: Maks Trebukhov
Ihor Liski

First of all, Liski believes it is crucial for Ukraine not to become a bargaining chip in the geopolitical game of the United States – which is trying to tear Russia away from China. The only condition for ending this war, in his view, should be a sustainable and just peace – or a truce as its foundation.

“Without a just peace, there will be no public trust in the government and the country. And when there is no trust from the population, the military, the bereaved, the relatives of those who laid down their lives – this country will not succeed,” the businessman is convinced.

“The lack of justice will simply tear the country apart,” Liski believes. “It will nullify all efforts. It will multiply subjectivity by zero. No one will invest in this country – not to mention foreign investment. Even Ukrainians themselves will not believe in this country. Many people will feel betrayed. I am even afraid to imagine the level of conflict in the elections. It will be a torn country without a future – with all the attributes of peace: no shooting, no flying ‘chessmen’. But we definitely do not need such an unjust peace or truce.”

Therefore, red lines are very important – and the government must rely on them in any negotiations, the businessman emphasises. Everything can be discussed, except:

1. Non-recognition of the occupied territories

“We have internationally recognised borders. We cannot give away either my native Luhansk or Crimea. This is a matter of principle. It is enough to let the genie out of the bottle once – and it will only be a matter of time before other countries redivide Ukraine. And not only Ukraine. This will be the right of the strong, which will destroy not only the world order. It will be the Third World War. In fact, it already exists – it will just grow into a large-scale story,” Liski believes.

2. Capable Armed Forces

This is the only guarantee of our security, says Liski. No one will defend a country that does not defend itself – he is sure of it.

3. Increase the capacity of the military-industrial complex

“If we can’t produce long-range missiles of 500+ kilometres ourselves, this war will never end. If we cannot produce 50+ long-range missiles per month, the war will not end. If Russia is not afraid of retaliatory strikes – nothing will happen,” the businessman says.

“We also have to produce 155 calibre, the main components of the weapons of the future: electronic systems, components for drones, communications, electronic warfare systems, etc.” This will be impossible, Liski emphasises, without the support of basic science – there can be no weapons of the future without it.

“No matter what anyone says – these three things are the key to a sustainable and just peace,” he stressed.

Ihor Liski, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, Yehor Firsov, Olha Ayvazovska, Ihor Lutsenko and Vadym Denysenko
Photo: Maks Trebukhov
Ihor Liski, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, Yehor Firsov, Olha Ayvazovska, Ihor Lutsenko and Vadym Denysenko

What should Ukraine do in the face of economic war and weakening US support? Firstly – it should mobilise the support of Europe, says Liski.

“Some countries, such as Scandinavia, have already mobilised. I want to believe that Britain will mobilise. We are waiting to see how much Germany will be mobilised after the new elections. And to what extent France – which has great potential – will play this story,” he adds.

Liski is convinced that the main economic resource is inside the country. But this requires overcoming administrative, organisational and managerial crises.

“Support for the Armed Forces, supplying the army, making quick decisions, and solving the personnel problem – which is enormous at all levels – depend on it. Sometimes the state is simply incapacitated. And I’m not talking about tax administration, which is in complete chaos. Sometimes, simple organisational decisions turn into a problem that has to be resolved by the President’s Office – when everything is already on fire,” the businessman said.

Photo: Maks Trebukhov

He is confident that solving governance problems will bring the country to a completely different level.

“Ukraine has the potential to win – despite America’s position. If we assume that America is setting us such conditions, saying that if we don’t sign peace with Russia now, they will leave and not help – then for us to survive this, fight, and win, we need to change the country’s governance and change the economy,” says Liski.

And, of course, he adds – Ukraine must implement reforms immediately and move towards the European Union.

“Europe is our main ally. As soon as we become part of the European Union, a new security component will begin. And Ukraine is a big part of it. This security alliance should be based on the experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – that is why European countries should support our Armed Forces and our economy,” Liski said.

The discussion is available in video format: 

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