Autumn and winter will be difficult. The enemy will conduct offensive operations in winter, as it has done since 2014, the Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr Pivnenko, said in an interview with LB.
The turning point in the war will come when Ukrainian infantry push forward. Strikes on Russian infrastructure, oil and the energy sector need to be continued and intensified; however, in the classic sense, a turning point is when troops are advancing and the enemy’s defences have been broken.
“If we are not moving forward and are defending, what kind of turning point in the war is that? Any territory we take and the enemy cannot hold against our offensive actions — that is what is called a turning point,” he explained.
Pivnenko added that, as things stand, Russia currently has no offensive capability for a new attack on northern Ukraine. To create a buffer zone of 10–20 kilometres would require 70,000 troops.
“In their plans, perhaps, that exists under favourable conditions. Their main task is Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka — to close all that off. And to keep us stretched thin. To keep our troops not in a grouping, but to spread them out,” the NGU commander said.
He noted that for the Defence Forces this would be a negative development, because there are not that many troops for 1,300 kilometres of combat operations.
Pivnenko confirmed that preparations for mobilisation in Russia are under way, which could begin after the State Duma elections. Defenders are taking preventive measures and are preparing to destroy the enemy with drones as soon as it approaches.
“We need to destroy them at the border,” he said.
Regarding a possible offensive on Kyiv, the NGU commander said the enemy is unlikely to reach Kyiv.
“They won’t get there. If they go in there to a depth of 10, 15, 20 kilometres — that is the maximum that could happen,” he believes.