Thirty-eight of 106 Russian companies and institutions involved in developing artificial intelligence and linked to the military sphere are not under sanctions. Another 27 companies face restrictions from only one country. This is according to a study by the analytical organisation Kontur.
Researchers identified six clusters within Russia’s AI industry, including developers of artificial intelligence for drones, ground-based robotic systems and weapons systems, microelectronics manufacturers, universities, research institutes and state funds. Overall, 34 companies develop AI for military needs, and 12 universities and research institutions are working on the relevant technologies.
Ukraine has imposed the most sanctions restrictions — against 58 companies. The United States has sanctioned 44, the European Union 33, and the United Kingdom 10. Only nine companies, however, are under sanctions in all four jurisdictions.
Gaps in restrictions are particularly noticeable when it comes to private developers that began cooperating with the Russian army or reoriented towards its needs after the start of the full-scale war. Among manufacturers of AI for drones, ground robots and weapons systems, 15 companies remain outside sanctions. Of 13 developers of computer vision systems, nine have no sanctions restrictions. Among 11 state funds and accelerators, four are not under sanctions, while another three are restricted only by Ukraine.
Russia is developing military artificial intelligence largely by adapting existing technologies to its own needs. Priority areas include target recognition and terminal guidance for drones, computer vision, and integrating AI into troop command and control. These functions are used, among others, in the Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones, V2U and Lancet.
At the same time, the sector’s development is constrained by dependence on foreign electronics. Russia has no access to EUV lithography equipment needed to produce the most advanced chips and is forced to import components via third countries. According to the study, around 90% of microelectronics imports into the Russian Federation in 2023 passed through China.
Despite sanctions, Russian companies continue to obtain sanctioned equipment through intermediaries. However, such deliveries increase costs: sanctioned microelectronics cost on average twice as much as before the full-scale invasion.
Researchers note that the sanctions policies of Ukraine’s partner countries remain insufficiently co-ordinated. Restrictions mainly cover long-established enterprises in the military-industrial complex, while some private developers and organisations that sustain Russia’s military AI ecosystem continue to operate without sanctions.