The President, Vladimir Putin, miscalculated Russia’s capacity to invade Ukraine. "This mistake is likely to cost him power," writes Bloomberg, citing Clocktower Group chief strategist Marko Papic.
Papic believes Putin did not account for potential financial constraints when deciding to invade Ukraine. Ukraine's severe resistance makes the situation even harder. Papic predicts this might lead to Putin’s dismissal as the Russian leader over the next 12 months.
“First, Ukrainians are fighting very, very hard. Second, Russian troops don't have any real war experience. Third, Ukraine is a very hard place to invade. I think what’s happening in Ukraine is very frightening and, at the same time, hopeful. We are witnessing what we haven’t seen in a long time — the birth of a new national identity and a self-conscious country. I think this could be a very interesting investment opportunity given that Ukraine withholds this invasion and preserves its independence,” – Papik says.
He also explained that “Putin has 12 months left” because politicians who make extremely poor decisions and overestimate their power have to pay the price.