The fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%], which is better than previous forecasts, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine reported.
"During 2022, Russia inflicted on the economy of Ukraine the largest losses, damages and disruptions in the history of independence, as on 24 February it extended its terror, which had begun in 2014, along the entire length of the common border and from the territory of Belarus and the occupied Crimea," said First Vice Prime Minister - Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yuliya Svyrydenko.
She noted that the successes of the Ukrainian defence forces on the battlefield, the coordinated work of the government and business, the indomitable spirit of the population, the speed of restoration of destroyed/damaged critical infrastructure by local services, as well as the systematic financial support from international partners allowed to hold the economic front and continue moving towards victory.
According to a preliminary estimate by analysts of the Economy Ministry (using indirect calculation methods and modelling tools), based on the State Statistics Service's operational estimate of real GDP for 3 quarters of 2022 (in the first quarter of 2022, a decrease compared to the first quarter of 2021 by 15.1%, in the second quarter of 2022 - by 37.2%, in the third quarter of 2022 - by 30.8%, respectively), GDP decline in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%] (growth of 3.4% in 2021).
This is objectively the worst result of the times of independence, however, better than most experts expected at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, when estimates ranged from 40-50% of GDP decline and deeper.
Also, the Ministry of Economy reported that in December, the GDP decline was estimated at - 34 [±2%], which is slightly better than the estimates for November (GDP decline at 37 [±2%]) (respectively, the fourth quarter - decline at 35.5 [±2%]), taking into account a certain stabilization of the energy supply situation after the shelling in November. However, further terrorist missile attacks by the Russian Federation caused some damage (in particular, to energy infrastructure), which continued to influence the attitude and activity of businesses.