What will be the domestic political situation in Ukraine in 2024? How will it interact with its Western partners? Will it be possible to ensure cooperation between the government and business? Is liberalisation and democratic progress possible during the war? How to deal with the return of Ukrainians home and with human potential in general? What should the new social contract look like? These questions formed the core of the panel discussion "2024: Scenarios for the Country" held as part of the New Country special project by LB.ua and EFI Group on 25 January.
The speakers of the panel were:
- Davyd Arakhamiya, leader of the Servant of the People faction in parliament; Davyd Arakhamiya
- Ihor Liski, supervisory board chairman of EFI Group; Ihor Liski
- Pavlo Sheremeta, former minister of economic development and trade of Ukraine, founder of Kyiv Mohyla Business School; Pavlo Sheremeta
- Ella Libanova, director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Ella Libanova
Oleksandr Korniyenko, first deputy speaker of parliament, and other invited guests also took part in the discussion.
The discussion was moderated by Sonya Koshkina, editor-in-chief of LB.ua.
"Sociology shows that society, which pulled ranks around resistance a year and a half or two years ago, is unfortunately divided today. And, according to the forecast, it may be split 50-50. That is, half of the people will say: let's finish as is or under any compromise scenarios. And the other half will say: let's fight until we win. And this will involve many challenges that will affect all aspects of life," Davyd Arakhamiya, head of the Servant of the People faction, said.
According to Ella Libanova, Ukraine should prepare for a change in the demographic situation, namely depopulation.
"Yes, there will not be 40 million of us, let alone 52 [million], as there were on 1 January 1992. Let's forget about it. We can reach a population of 40 million, but only through strong immigration," the professor said.
"Thinking about the scenarios of 2024, the future should definitely be viewed through the prism of the frontline. We definitely need to win. Or we definitely need to prevent defeat. The more looming it is, the less unity there will be, the less investment, the worse the demographics will be. We have to become stronger, more united and better prepared to defend the country," said Ihor Liski, supervisory board chairman of EFI Group.
"We have an internal investment resource. We can see it in the streets of Kyiv, in Lviv's Rynok Square, in the central squares of other western Ukrainian cities. We see rather high consumption. This means that there is money in the country. When we talk about mobilising people, we should also talk about mobilising money. The instrument of such mobilisation is savings. And there is very little talk about it in Ukraine," said Pavlo Sheremeta.
Fuller remarks by the key speakers will be available on LB.ua shortly.
Takeaways from the discussion
- Arakhamiya suggested disclosing Ukraine's war losses
- Korniyenko said NATO partners say joining the alliance conditional on EU accession
- Libanova warned of depopulation
- Arakhamiya suggested public servants should attend boot camps