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Budanov: Russia sees war's key phase in summer-2nd half of 2025 or early 2026

"If they don't emerge as conditional winners by then, they will lose the opportunity to be a superpower for the foreseeable future, about 30 years.”

Budanov: Russia sees war's key phase in summer-2nd half of 2025 or early 2026
Photo: Max Trebukhov

Russia considers the summer-second half of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 to be the frontier of the war. 

This was stated during the Yalta European Strategy (YES) meeting by the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, LB.ua reports.

"These are their calculations. If they still do not emerge as conditional winners, then for the foreseeable future, about 30 years, they lose the opportunity to be a superpower. That leaves two countries: China and the United States. And the maximum Russia can expect is regional leadership, which does not suit it," he said.

Budanov stressed that the professional army of the Russians has been destroyed and they are fighting as mobilised troops.

"That's why they will do everything to win," the DIU chief added.

Budanov noted that Russians understand that there is an economic downturn in the country, but "it is not yet the peak". 

"They predict that around the summer of 2025, the economic downturn caused by the war will become very noticeable for their country," he said.

  • In early August, Budanov predicted a decline in Russian military offensives at the front in a month and a half or two. According to him, the practice of a decade-long war shows that "either side does not sustain its offensive potential for more than two months". 
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