The “historic” phone call turned out to be completely ineffective. However, it appears to have allowed the Kremlin, with a little help from the White House, to break the diplomatic deadlock and begin a new phase of negotiations.
When Ukraine agreed to the American proposal of a 30-day ceasefire, with no preconditions, in Saudi Arabia on 11 March, the ball was in Russia’s court. Common sense suggested a straightforward course of action. Washington should have clearly stated that if Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire, it would immediately impose a comprehensive set of severe sanctions on the Kremlin. Additionally, Trump could have outlined the weapons to be supplied to Kyiv the very next day. Yet none of this was done. Instead, the American president merely offered vague promises of “crushing punishments” should Russia fail to agree to a ceasefire.
Putin has studied Trump’s character well enough to recognise that public threats from the American president carry little weight. As a result, Moscow opted for the tactic of presenting counter-proposals as conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire. These demands were unrealistic and included things like the suspension of military aid and a halt to mobilisation in Ukraine during the ceasefire—conditions that were categorically unacceptable.
The US administration should have reacted decisively, making it clear to Putin that he was in no position to impose conditions. However, Trump lacked the resolve to bring Putin to his senses. A few days before the phone call on 18 March, it was already apparent that Russia would not agree to a truce. But, in order to avoid appearing eager to prolong the war in the eyes of the world, Russia would attempt to justify its refusal with a series of far-fetched pretexts and preconditions.
For now, Putin has opted for a strategy of avoiding an immediate ceasefire and turning peace talks into a protracted series of discussions. The 18 March phone call with Trump presented a prime opportunity for the Russian president to test the seriousness of the White House’s threats. The Kremlin easily managed to break the deadlock following the US-Ukraine meeting in Jeddah. It has drawn the White House into a new round of negotiations, hoping to sell Trump the illusion of mutually beneficial cooperation.
The American president may believe he is in control of the situation, but in reality, he is playing with the cards that Putin has dealt. It is Moscow that is now clearly laying out its imperialist demands of a strategic nature, while the messages from the White House seem like freewheeling declarations of “we are for peace.” The problem is that Trump does not want to admit his own failure and that he has been played for a fool. Instead, he is likely to seek external forces, rather than Putin, to blame for the collapse of the ceasefire. Perhaps he will point to Ukraine’s intransigence or Europe’s intrigues.
For reasons unknown, Kyiv did not fully capitalise on the opportunity to blame Russia for the disruption of the US-Ukrainian initiative for a 30-day truce. Instead, Ukraine was quickly drawn into a new negotiation track that began after the Trump-Putin phone call. The main issue discussed was a mutual moratorium on strikes against energy and other infrastructure.
On 19 March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at a joint press conference with Finnish President Alexander Stubb that Ukraine would prepare and hand over to its partners a list of energy, infrastructure, and civilian facilities that Russia should cease attacking. He also promised that, if Russia stopped targeting these facilities, Ukraine would reciprocate by halting attacks on the aggressor’s energy sector.
Later, Zelenskyy and Trump had a telephone conversation, and both expressed satisfaction with the discussion. A 30-day truce was no longer on the table, but the President of Ukraine supported a proposal that was apparently raised during the conversation between Putin and Trump: to halt attacks on infrastructure and energy facilities for 30 days. The leaders of Ukraine and the United States agreed to hold a meeting of their delegations in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss the technical details of a partial truce, which would include a ceasefire on attacks against energy and civilian infrastructure. Thus, Russia was able to swiftly and without consequence shift the focus from a complete ceasefire to a mutual ban on energy strikes.
The US administration remains optimistic, expressing hope that the hostilities could end within a few weeks. This was stated, in particular, by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special representative for the Middle East and communication with the Kremlin. Witkoff said that he believes Putin and that the Russian leader is capable of acting in “good faith”.
What’s next? We will likely see a new round of negotiations, with further contacts between Americans, Russians, and Ukrainians. There will be new phone calls, exchanges of pleasantries, and threats. So far, all of Trump’s efforts to end the war have been in vain. Russian drones continue to attack Ukraine, and it is uncertain whether an effective moratorium on strikes against infrastructure will be implemented. As for efforts to secure a peace that is just for Ukraine, the situation is even worse. Punishing Russia for its aggression is out of the question.
Trump is now acting not as an ally of Ukraine, but as a mediator in the negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. This is an uncomfortable position, as the American president is not inclined to engage with Putin from a position of strength. Trump rarely employs the option of forcing Russia to peace. However, he is fully utilising other alternatives, which are less suited for someone who considers himself a global leader: persuasion for peace and ritualistic dances around Putin.
Trump is also limited in his ability to apply pressure on the victim of aggression, Ukraine. Americans do not like Putin and do not trust Russia. The latest Gallup poll reflects this: 46% of Americans believe the US is not doing enough to help Ukraine, while 70% fear that a potential peace deal would be too favourable to Russia.