At a recent closed-door meeting with journalists, President Zelenskyy said that the issue of territories must be decided by the Ukrainian people — effectively referring to a referendum. In your view, how would Ukrainians react to peace and funds for reconstruction in exchange for effectively giving up territories?
Don’t rush this. I’ll say it again: I am a firm opponent of giving up anything. In principle.
At the same meeting, President Zelenskyy also noted that we do not know what the Russians are negotiating with the Americans, and vice versa. It is clear this concerns the economy, but can you be more specific? What, according to your information, are the US and Russia negotiating about?
Joint development of the Arctic shelf. You probably know that Russia is rich in natural resources but lacks the technological solutions to extract them.
In autumn, intelligence reported that North Korea supplies up to 50% of Russia’s ammunition for its war against Ukraine. In summer, you spoke of 40%. So is the role of the DPRK growing? And to what extent do North Korean units continue to take part in the aggression?
Nothing has changed. There was another delivery today. Personnel are not currently involved in open combat operations. There are around 8,500 troops from the 91st, 92nd, 93rd and 94th special forces brigades, but they are all located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Their activity is limited, so to speak, to participation in artillery strikes on border areas and operating UAVs — all within the framework of experience exchange. Essentially, this is practical training for them. About 1,000 personnel are currently in Kursk Region.
But there is a lot of weapons.
This year, Europe has faced a much higher level of Russia’s hybrid aggression on its own territory, yet European leaders also speak of the risks of direct aggression. In your assessment, is this possible in the foreseeable future?
According to the main plan, the Russian Federation was supposed to be ready to begin such actions in 2030. These plans have now been adjusted and revised, with timelines shortened to 2027.
And these are the Baltic states?
Yes.
Why?
The answer lies in deep historical and psychological trauma — in the Russian worldview. I call it phantom pain. From their perspective, it all makes perfect sense. This is how they see the world: north–south, west–east. For an empire — and they see themselves as an empire — to develop, it must always keep moving, expanding its influence and territory. That, by the way, answers a lot of questions.
To the north, there is only the Arctic Ocean, and beyond it — America. Not an option; it would hurt too much. To the east, the Pacific Ocean — and again, America. Same answer. To the south, China — that would be catastrophic: a land border and conditions similar to what we have in the war with the Russian Federation, only this time for them. That leaves only the west, which in their minds — pardon the expression — is “spoiled”, “sick”, “weak” and “indecisive”.
So the Baltic states — occupation?
Occupation.
The Latvian ambassador should be somewhere in the room, by the way. And Poland?
Poland, according to the plans known to us, is currently considered solely as a target for strikes — a military campaign without occupation.
If we look at 2026 as realistically as possible, where do you see potential points of growth or breakthrough? What should we hope for?
In ourselves. Because Ukraine is a country of opportunity. We really can… I’ve said this before, and don’t take it the wrong way: we are not gods, but we do know how to perform miracles. And everything depends on us. No Europe — no matter how much anyone may love it — will do this for us. Only us. No one will do anything on our behalf, especially when you are dealing with the Russian Federation, which is, frankly, not very civilised.
We often hear that the United States may stop sharing intelligence. If that happens, how critical and painful would it be for us? And what kind of information are we talking about — not specifics, but types?
We are critically dependent on the United States. But this dependency can be divided into two, so to speak, areas. Let me explain. We are critically dependent in terms of satellite imagery — radar and optical. And here there are two components.
First, we receive access to satellite imagery free of charge, as assistance. Second, we have our own contracts. If the part provided as assistance were cut off, the impact on optical imagery would be roughly a 15–17% reduction — not critical.
For radar imagery, about 46% — difficult, but still not catastrophic. We all like to photograph a little bush somewhere, because we want to look at it via satellite. It becomes critical if a political decision is made to block the contracts. Then we fall almost to zero. In that respect, our dependence is critical.
The second area where we are dependent is early warning of ballistic threats. Everything else — everything else — is ours.
What is the biggest mistake inside the country that we can still fix in order to win — or at least not lose everything we have?
The main mistake, purely in my view, is a completely lost media campaign. Completely. It allowed, let’s put it this way, the temperature around mobilisation to be driven up. We all blame the Russian Federation, but their influence is not as great as many think. This was done from within. Sometimes deliberately, driven by the personal ambitions of certain individuals. Sometimes thoughtlessly. We ourselves destroyed our mobilisation. No matter what anyone says to the contrary, that is not the case. We destroyed it ourselves.
Thank you to all our guests. As is customary for this venue, we will continue the discussion informally. But in closing, I want to ask the question everyone is waiting for an answer to, Kyrylo Oleksiyovych. And this is definitely not about the Head of the Presidential Office — because that would simply be ridiculous. Will you run for president in the next presidential election?
To be honest, I haven’t approached that question in any concrete way. I haven’t thought about it. I’m not sure we will even face that question any time soon. And what happens later depends on so many factors…
