Russia has revised down its forecasts for natural gas production and exports for 2026–2029. At the same time, the country’s authorities plan to increase the tax burden and household utility tariffs.
This was reported by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
According to the agency, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has worsened its outlook for the gas sector, acknowledging that it will not be possible to quickly replace the lost European market.
In 2025, exports of Russian pipeline gas to Europe fell by 44% – to 18 billion cubic metres. Expectations for liquefied natural gas exports in 2026 were also cut from 40.3 million to 35 million tonnes. Even under official calculations, a return to previous supply volumes is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, China remains one of the key buyers of Russian gas. Under the new forecast, the average price of Russian gas for China in 2026 will be $247.9 per 1,000 cubic metres, compared with the previous estimate of $258.8.
"The ‘Power of Baikal’ project, with a capacity of up to 50 billion cubic metres a year, remains without final agreement on price and supply terms. Even after a deal is reached, construction will take years. The new pipeline will not restore Russia’s lost European market, but will tie it to a single major buyer," the Foreign Intelligence Service adds.
Against this backdrop, the Russian authorities plan to boost budget revenues at the public’s expense. Russia’s Ministry of Finance is proposing to raise taxes on dividends, bank deposits and property sales to 22%.
In addition, from 1 July 2027 Russia plans to increase utility tariffs by an average of 11% instead of the previously projected 8.7%.
"The Russian authorities are already factoring deteriorating gas indicators into their budget calculations. Lost export revenues are not returning, dependence on China is growing, and the Kremlin is passing the financial bill for the war against Ukraine on to citizens," the intelligence service adds.