The National Bank of Ukraine has published its October Inflation Report, in which it forecasts consumer inflation accelerating to 12.5% by the end of 2026, but expects it to fall to 7.3% in 2027 and to 5% in 2028.
This is stated on the NBU’s website.
According to the regulator’s estimates, prices are rising this year due to higher fuel costs, the impact of damage to production and logistics infrastructure, and an expansion of fiscal stimulus towards the end of the year.
Intensified Russian strikes on businesses, the energy sector and ports are weighing on the economy, meaning real GDP will contract by 0.4% this year. Losses to the external trade balance from these attacks will reach $6.6bn, primarily due to a reduction in exports of agricultural products. However, the economy is set to grow by 0.4% in 2027 thanks to state investment in the defence industry and the restoration of critical infrastructure, and by 2.2% in 2028.
The labour market will continue to face staff shortages due to mobilisation and migration. The NBU forecasts that net population outflows in 2026–2027 will amount to around 200,000 people each year, while in 2028 around 100,000 migrants will return to Ukraine. Due to the lack of workers, real wages will rise by 11.4% in 2026, while in 2027–2028 their growth will slow to 4–5% per year.
The budget deficit excluding grants will increase to 35% of GDP in 2026 and to 37% in 2027, after which it will shrink to 20% in 2028. Its key source of financing will remain international assistance: Ukraine expects to receive around $50bn in direct budget financing in 2026, more than $52bn in 2027 and $44bn in 2028. Separately, under the Ukraine Support Loan defence programme, more than $32bn will be received this year and $37bn next year. This will make it possible to keep international reserves above $62bn in 2028.