Russia has revised its military goals in Ukraine in a way that makes it easier for President Vladimir Putin to declare victory despite the humiliating failures of the Russian military.
On February 24, when Russia attacked Ukraine, it demanded government change, "denazification", "demilitarization" of Ukraine, consent to a neutral status and recognition of Crimea as Russian territory.
However, on March 26, Sergei Rudsky, Chief of the Main Operations Department of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, stated that the real goal was to "liberate" Donbass.
"The main goals of the first stage of the operation have been completed, - he said. - The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is significantly reduced, which ... allows us to focus our main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass."
However, if the capture of the Donbass region was the goal from the beginning, Russia would not have to attack Ukraine from the north, south and east, according to Reuters.
"It is obvious that they have completely failed in everything they set out to do, so now they are changing their goal to declare victory, - said General Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US military in Europe. - It is obvious that they do not have the possibility to continue large-scale offensive operations ... Their logistical problems were obvious to everyone, they had serious issues with military personnel, and the resistance was much tougher than they could have imagined.”
"The initial strategy (of Russia, - LB.ua) was to decapitate the Ukrainian government or cause its collapse by simply bringing troops into the country. Obviously, this did not happen, the contrary happened," said Nick Reynolds, a military analyst at Britain's Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies.
According to General Hodges, if Ukraine receives long-range missiles, artillery and drones as part of assistance, it will be able to move from defense to attacks.
In its turn, the Bloomberg agency also noted that the Russians’ statements that they were concentrating their efforts on Donbass after a month of war "is potentially a sign that Moscow is retreating from hopes of capturing larger areas of the country."
The agency notes that according to official NATO estimates, the Russian army losses are between 7,000 and 15,000 soldiers (killed) and 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers (wounded).
Michael Coffman, CNA specialist on the Russian military (CNS is a Washington think tank), said Russia appears to be "revising war goals" in an attempt to "determine priorities where they can actually achieve some military success."
"This gives Moscow the opportunity to end this war in such a way that it can declare victory for its internal audience, - he said. - Politically, Russia is losing. In military terms, the situation is less clear. Russian troops lost speed and failed to achieve most of their goals. But this is the first chapter of the war. It is difficult to say whether we are close to the beginning, middle or end of the conflict.”
It should be noted that the head of the “Return Alive” Foundation Taras Chmut made a similar forecast in an interview with LB.ua.