There is currently no intelligence about an imminent threat of invasion from Belarus, although this possibility cannot be completely ruled out, the chief of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, has said in an interview with The New York Times.
According to him, Russia is trying to convince Ukraine to diver soldiers from the combat zone in the southeast with a flurry of military activity to the north in Belarus. For example, the Russian Federation arranges "carousels", loading soldiers on trains towards Belarus's border with Ukraine and then takes them back.
"There are all elements of disinformation campaigns," the head of the GUR says.
Long-term risks remain, Budanov admitted. However, no intelligence indicates an immediate threat.
According to him, none of the Russian troops are arrayed in assault formations. The mobilised troops are trained in Belarus before being sent to Donbas, but the training grounds lack proper equipment for an attack.
Similarly, he said, Russia's cross-border artillery shelling of Sumy and Kharkiv regions of northeastern Ukraine, which has killed and wounded dozens of people, is not a harbinger of an immediate threat of a repeat invasion. Russian military units are not assembled for an attack and "cannot be formed in one day".
According to the ISW Institute, Russia has been preparing conditions for an invasion of northern Ukraine and an attack on Kyiv since October. For this purpose, there was a partial build-up of military capabilities in Belarus and intensification of the relevant information campaign.