According to the Defence Forces, the number of Russian ground troops participating in the hostilities against Ukraine increased over the week. According to LB.ua's sources in the Defence Forces, the number of personnel in the Russian Armed Forces is about 522,400. A week ago, their number was estimated at 520,000.
The number of occupiers from the National Guard has also increased to 35,800. A week ago, their number was estimated at 32,700.
The Russia's aviation grouping in the occupied territory and around Ukraine totals approximately 319 combat aircraft and about 293 helicopters. This is also slightly higher than the estimate a week ago. There are up to eight operational and reconnaissance aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the territory of Belarus.
The number of air and missile strikes and the analysis of information on the supply of missiles and drones show that the stocks of missiles and attack UAVs are being replenished on a regular basis, which will allow the Russians to maintain the existing intensity of strikes throughout the country.
Russia continues preparations for new massive air strikes, conducting additional reconnaissance of a number of facilities in Ukraine's defence, industrial and fuel and energy sectors. It is training long-range aviation crews. We should expect a further increase in the number of tactical aircraft (with X-59/-69 missiles, KABs, etc.) in case the Russian military conduct new massive or concentrated strikes on the territory of Ukraine - in addition to strategic/ long-range aircraft.
Taking into account the current schedule of equipping missile carriers and crew training, it has been established that Russians were ready to launch another massive missile and air strike on the territory of Ukraine at the beginning of the week.
In general, there are no prerequisites for reducing the intensity of missile and air attacks against Ukraine. Russia is not expected to exhaust its stockpile of missile weapons in the near future.
Interlocutors in the Defence Forces added that the operational situation in the areas of ground combat for Ukrainian troops remained difficult and escalated in the reporting period. The Russian army is partially successful.
In the Kharkiv sector, Russians continued offensive actions in the vicinity of Liptsy, Vovchansk, Starytsya, Izbytske. Threats of further breakthroughs/invasion are currently minimal, and the situation is generally stabilised on both sides, despite the intensive use of troops. In order to divert attention and to move Ukrainian reserves from more threatening areas, Russians are preparing to conduct demonstration actions in the direction of Krasnyy Khutor (Belgorod Region of Russia) and Kozacha Lopan (Kharkiv Region).
In the Volyn and Polissya operational areas, no signs of offensive groups were detected. Certain units of the Armed Forces of Belarus are performing tasks in the areas bordering Ukraine - a total of about 1,800 servicemen.
In the Black Sea and Azov operational zones, the operational situation has not changed significantly. The Russian military control the surface and air situation, keep ships and submarines ready for missile attacks on the territory of Ukraine and hinder Ukraine's maritime economic activity in the region. At the same time, the Russian army is improving the system of protection and defence of the Kerch bridge crossing. It is taking steps to restore ferry service between the ports of Kavkaz (Taman Peninsula) and Crimea or Kerch Sea Fishing Port (TOT of Crimea).
In addition, Russia has intensified reconnaissance and sabotage activities in Sumy Region (with attempts to temporarily seize/retain certain facilities to prepare relevant propaganda materials in the media) and some cases of sabotage of railway infrastructure in other frontline regions.
For its part, the Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to hit targets deep in Russia (there is an increase in range and intensity) and the temporarily occupied territories, with the response of the Strategic Missile Forces, the DIU, the SBU, cyberattacks and information influence measures that allow the Ukrainian side to achieve at least demoralising effects on the population of the aggressor state.