One of the most important positives is the growth in natural gas production in Ukraine. While last year in October the average daily gas production in Ukraine was 52.4 million cubic metres, this year gas production is 53.5 million cubic metres per day, which is more than 1 million cubic metres per day more than last year. This is 34 million cubic metres of additional gas for the month. Moreover, the trend of gradual production growth continues and is likely to continue in the coming months.
The main drivers of production growth in recent years have been the state-owned companies Ukrgasvydobuvannya and Ukrnafta of Naftogaz Group. For example, Ukrgasvydobuvannya produced 10.88 bcm of gross natural gas in 9M2024, up 5.9% compared to 2023. Ukrnafta produced 870 million cubic metres of gross natural gas in 9M2024, up 7.5% year-on-year.
In recent months, private companies have also shown production growth, especially after the renewal of licences of Ukrnaftoburinnya, Smart Energy and Horizonty. In the first 9 months of 2024, private companies are still 14% behind last year, but compared to the average daily production of private companies in October (10.5 mcm), it is 5% higher than last year.
Sufficient gas reserves in underground storage facilities at the end of October are another factor that inspires cautious optimism. As of 23 October, gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities exceeded 12.9 bcm. The accumulated resources in the underground storage facilities are already sufficient for the heating season, as stated by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal and Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk.
Moreover, natural gas is being pumped into the storage facilities despite the start of the heating season and increased consumption.
In addition, the relatively warm and sunny weather in recent days across Ukraine has allowed for a postponement of the heating connection for household consumers. The full heating season is likely to start as early as November, which will allow for more gas resources to be saved for the winter.
For example, the deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration, Petro Panteleyev, said that the decision to connect residential buildings to heat will be made in late October or early November, when lower temperatures are expected. Typically, local authorities make such a decision when the average daily temperature remains below 8°C for three days with a forecast of a cold snap.
Ukraine is generally prepared for the winter, and the start of the heating season is optimistic due to warm weather, increased gas production and sufficient storage reserves.