Budanov's map
This is a photo of a map of the Russian invasion with the logo of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. It was published on the website of the influential Military Times three months before the start of the full-scale war with Russia - on 21 November 2021. The map shows in detail the routes and goals of the Russian offensive: the encirclement of Mariupol, the offensive from the occupied Crimea to the south of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, the sea landing in Odesa, the capture of Kharkiv, and the attack on Kyiv from Belarus through Chornobyl. The exact number of battalion tactical groups, personnel, tanks, artillery, helicopters, ships and submarines is given. The map shows the exact military potential of the enemy near the borders of Ukraine at that time.
The map was provided to journalists by the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov. It became an illustration to a large interview with the chief Ukrainian intelligence officer. "Russia has amassed more than 92,000 troops near Ukraine's borders and is preparing for an attack in late January or early February. Such an attack is likely to include air strikes, artillery and armoured vehicle attacks, followed by airborne assaults in Odesa and Mariupol and an invasion through neighbouring Belarus," Kyrylo Budanov said in an exclusive interview with Military Times journalist Howard Altman in November 2021.
Intelligence knew the enemy's plans and asked the allies for help
In the same interview, the Ukrainian general said that Russia is building up its military potential, increasing the number of troops and weapons systems in the occupied Crimea, deploying short-range Iskander ballistic missile systems and other weapons near the border with Ukraine. Budanov also ridiculed the journalist's suggestion that the terrible winter weather conditions would somehow stop the Russians from invading.
A significant part of the conversation with Howard Altman was devoted to the topic of assistance to Ukraine from our Western allies. Budanov expressed confidence that the United States could deter any Russian invasion through additional military assistance to Ukraine and increased diplomatic and economic pressure. Together with additional sanctions against Russia, arrest and blocking of Russian bank accounts. Of course, if they really want to.
"We need more. No country, except Ukraine, is at open war with Russia. And we have been for 7 years. So we are sure that the US should give us everything we have not received before. And right now. This is the right time to do it. Because later it may be too late," said Ukraine's top intelligence officer three months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian hordes.
The growing Russian threat and the Martian invasion
However, at the time, almost no one in the civilian or political world took the map with arrows of a potential Russian offensive against Ukraine that Budanov showed the world seriously. Neither in Ukraine, nor in the United States, nor in Europe. To most Ukrainians, it seemed like the setting for a science fiction film about an invasion by Martians. How wrong we were. "Budanov added that he had received fairly accurate information about Putin's desire to start a war from his agency, which has grown tenfold over the past few years. The head of the DIU gently hinted that it was also about people close to the Kremlin," NV.ua journalists recalled the events of autumn 2021 in an article dated 25.05.2023.
"In December 2021 - January 2022, the number of Russian troops on the border doubled. Foreign intelligence agencies share detailed information about the Russian threat. Budanov confirms that this data coincides with Ukrainian data," journalists of the UNIAN news agency described the events of that time.
CIA Director's meeting with the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
On 12 January 2022, CIA Director William Burns flew to Kyiv on a secret visit. He brought the Ukrainian president and Ukrainian intelligence officers the latest information from his agency. "Burns visited Kyiv because of the accumulation of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. He met with representatives of Ukrainian intelligence, as well as with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy," Deutsche Welle reported at the time.
"On 12 January, Burns met with Zelensky in Kyiv and gave a frank assessment. The intelligence picture had only become clearer. Russia intended to launch a lightning strike on Kyiv and decapitate the central government. The United States also discovered the main part of Russia's military plan on the battlefield: Russia would attempt to land its armed forces first at the airport in Gostomel, a suburb of the capital, where runways could accommodate large Russian transport aircraft carrying troops and weapons. Then the assault on Kyiv would begin," The Washington Post described US and Ukrainian intelligence at the time.
The Russians kept postponing the start of the full-scale invasion
As Kyrylo Budanov himself said in an interview with UP, the date of the full-scale invasion was constantly changed and postponed by the Russians. According to one legend that has been circulating among Ukrainian journalists for almost three years, Putin's extraordinary love of mysticism and demonic witchcraft helped determine the exact date of the start of the great war. Our intelligence officers allegedly asked Ukrainian experts in this field which day would be the "best" for the Russians to attack; what would Russian "demonologists" tell Putin in response to a similar question? The "forecast" seems to have coincided to within an hour.
Of course, this is just a fable. In fact, the information about the morning of the 24th came from many sources to the DIU, including the Russian dictator's inner circle. "The Russians kept postponing the date. For the last two weeks, they were constantly postponing it by a day or two. But on the 23rd, I think, at 2:30 pm, we clearly received information that the start would be at 4 am and how it would be. This was brought to the first person of the state. He gave the order. But just do the maths - there was not much time left until 4:00," Kyrylo Budanov recalled the events of the last "pre-wide" day in an interview with UP.
NSDC in Kharkiv and the "next Wednesday's attack"
Ukrainian intelligence informed the participants of the NSDC offsite meeting held in Kharkiv on 11 February 2022 about the real threat of a full-scale invasion. At that time, the main issue on the agenda was Russia's blockade of shipping in the Azov and Black Seas, which the Russians announced on 9 February, allegedly because of military exercises. The NSDC also discussed problems with the formation of territorial defence units.
The head of the State Border Guard Service, Serhiy Deyneko, the commander of the Navy, Oleksiy Neyizhpapa, then-Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, and representatives of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reported. The intelligence officers informed the audience about the intentions of the Russians to attack Ukraine along the entire line of the common border, including from Crimea and Belarus. The heads of the territorial defence zones - Kyiv Mayor Klitschko, heads of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya and Odesa regional state administrations - were also heard.
"Today, we have to increase the number of servicemen in the Armed Forces' Territorial Defence to 2 million," said Oleksiy Danilov, then Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council.
On the same day, 11 February, the well-known German newspaper Spiegel published a report "CIA expects Russian attack next week".
"US intelligence agencies have urgently warned NATO allies of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine. The CIA and the US military have informed the German government and other NATO countries that, based on new information, an attack is possible as early as next Wednesday... Specific routes for a Russian invasion were described, as well as individual Russian units and the tasks they would be performing. The possible date of the invasion is 16 February," German journalists reported.
Joe Biden: It will happen in the next few days
But the Russians postponed their offensive again. On Thursday, 17 February, US President Joe Biden personally confirmed the information about the inevitability of the invasion. In Washington, he said that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was "very high", but that the door to a diplomatic solution remained open.
"All the indications we have are that they are ready to go into Ukraine and attack it. I feel that this will happen in the next few days," the US president shared his intelligence.
At the same time, a week before Russia's full-scale invasion, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken painted a detailed and disturbing picture of what a Russian attack would look like during a UN Security Council meeting. The words of the American official were quoted by the influential publication The Foreign Policy.
"Russian missiles and bombs will fall on Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped. These targets include the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Conventional attacks are not all. Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians," said Antony Blinken, informing about the planned acts of genocide against the Ukrainian people.
Meeting on Bankova Street: Budanov demonstrates Russia's attack plan
On the evening of 22 February 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy gathered the heads of all parliamentary factions and groups on Bankova Street. To unite and form, as the president said, a "defence coalition". The meeting was also attended by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and representatives of the security forces: The General Staff, the Ministry of Defence, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
According to UP, whose journalists attempted to reconstruct the government's actions, then-Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyy assured the audience that the Armed Forces were preparing for all possible scenarios of the war. The then Minister of Defence Oleksiy Reznikov and the head of the SBU Ivan Bakanov mostly denied the possibility of a full-scale invasion in their speeches to the president and parliamentarians. They only assumed a hostile PSYOP and an escalation of hostilities in Donbas.
However, the most extensive analysis of the situation at the time was given by the head of Ukrainian intelligence.
"Budanov pulled out a map from his papers and, with a calm expression on his face and deep in thought, began to tell things that should have made the blood run cold in the audience: the Russians could start a war outside Donbas, Kherson and Kharkiv are under threat, there is a threat to Kyiv, the Russians could try to enter from Chornobyl," described the meeting UP journalists who spoke to the direct participants of the meeting.
The President, the National Security and Defence Council and the Verkhovna Rada declare a state of emergency in Ukraine
The very next day after reading the Budanov Map, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy convened an extraordinary meeting of the National Security and Defence Council, which approved the decision to declare a state of emergency throughout Ukraine.
The exception was Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, where the Joint Forces Operation was already underway. On the same evening, 23 February, at an extraordinary meeting, 355 members of the Verkhovna Rada approved the decree of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on the introduction of a state of emergency.
The last night before the full-scale war
As Kyrylo Budanov later told us, having all the information about the time and place of the Russian invasion, on the evening of 23 February, he and his wife Marianna moved into his office to be physically closer to his scouts and not to waste time travelling in case of war.
"In the evening, we went to a grocery store on Petrivka Street. I remember it well. My wife and I bought some food there. We settled in the office, talked, waited... Then I dozed off a bit. And at about 03:30 I received a call from the head of the President's Office. He said: "Well, it's 03:30, everything seems to be calm. Maybe it will work out somehow?". I said: "Well, let's hope for the best, but I doubt it." And we talked like that until almost 4 o'clock. In fact, at about 04:20, the hits have started, because the missiles were already in the air, they were still flying for some time. That was it, I exhaled. Now I had to start working on the next issue," said the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
Ukrainian warriors have been hammering Putin for three years, not three days
The "next issue" is an armed confrontation with the enemy, who on the morning of 24 February 2022 launched a full-scale, treacherous, aggressive, genocidal war against Ukraine. A war for the complete destruction of the Ukrainian nation. Given that the Russians failed to capture Ukraine in three days, three months or three years, the Ukrainian military, including intelligence officers, are adequately coping with their main "task" - defending the Motherland and destroying Russian occupants on the ground, in the sky and at sea.
Glory to Ukrainian heroes!