Exports of agricultural products from Ukraine in the 2026–2027 marketing year could shrink by more than half due to Russian attacks on Black Sea ports. The preliminary export estimate has been cut to 29.6 million tonnes.
This was reported by Bloomberg, citing data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Under the new estimates, Ukraine could export around 29.6 million tonnes of agricultural products in the 2026–2027 marketing year. That is 54% less than the previous forecast of 64.4 million tonnes.
In particular, wheat exports could fall by 53% — to 8.3 million tonnes.
Ukraine remains one of the world’s largest grain suppliers. At the same time, the agricultural sector accounted for more than half of the country’s export revenues last year.
One of the main reasons for the revised forecasts is cited as Russian strikes on port infrastructure in the Odesa Region.
The Port of Odesa typically handles about 90% of grain exports, but Russian attacks are complicating port operations.
An alternative route via the Danube is also facing problems. Its capacity is limited due to drought and record-low water levels in the river.
An additional challenge for Ukrainian farmers is the new harvest.
Estimates suggest that around 59 million tonnes of grain storage capacity in Ukraine could be completely filled by early November.
By the end of autumn, the storage capacity shortfall could amount to about 11 million tonnes.
Reduced export capacity could also affect domestic grain prices and create additional pressure on Ukraine’s agricultural sector.