The vulnerability of Ukraine’s air defences is becoming critical, and the shortage of missiles for Patriot systems is not the only problem. The best way to counter jet-powered drones at present is with F-16 fighter jets, but maintaining them requires Western assistance, The Wall Street Journal writes in an editorial column. Rolling out other methods of tackling jet-powered UAVs on a large scale could take months.
In June, the Russians launched about 350 jet-powered drones at Ukraine; by September, that figure had risen to 2,000. They fly at around 365 miles per hour (600 km/h), so they cannot be brought down with conventional interceptor drones. Ukraine is currently able to shoot down roughly 55% of these unmanned aircraft, whereas the interception rate for the older Shahed drones was about 90%.
F-16s are suitable for shooting down jet-powered drones, and the cost of a single interception is typically around $25,000. Ukrainian aces have already shot down about 2,500 of these UAVs and around 650 cruise missiles.
“But after 300 flight hours, F-16s require a so-called ‘phase inspection’ so that the engine, avionics, hydraulics, fuel lines and other systems remain in working order,” the article says.
In the United States, a phase inspection usually takes two to six weeks; in Belgium, however, it “takes as long as 40 weeks”, notes retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.
Another Western source reports that more than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently in a “limbo” status for maintenance, and at the current pace of operations and repairs, Kyiv could run through the remainder by the end of the year. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force declined to comment.
Sabena, the company responsible for maintaining F-16s in Belgium, declined to answer specific questions, citing “operational security considerations and the sensitive nature of ongoing military support measures”.
Fighter jets engaged in combat may require more maintenance than those flying in peacetime, and shortages of certain components may also contribute to delays. But whatever the reason, it is a “breakdown in the support system that is becoming an air-defence crisis”, believes retired US Air Force Lieutenant General David Deptula.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that Belgium will transfer three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2026, and other Western partners may provide even more for use. It is worth considering how Ukraine can expand maintenance capacity inside the country and whether facilities in Romania could take on part of the technical support work.