Russian troops are setting up information conditions for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
The occupiers may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river.
On 18 October, the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, said that he had information that "Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka HPP", which, according to him, "would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Region".
The occupation head of Kherson Volodymyr Saldo echoed this statement, adding that "Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson City".
"Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Region," analysts say.
The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state.