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"Russia has no plans to wage war in 2025" - Budanov

As of today, Russia has no plans to wage war in 2025, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. He said that the war is exhausting Russia, although the Kremlin pretends that it is not. Speaking at the discussion panel "2024: Challenges and Prospects", held as part of a joint project by LB.ua and EFI Group, he outlined strategic plans for Russia and the main achievements of the special unit this year.

Kyrylo Budanov
Photo: Max Trebukhov
Kyrylo Budanov

"I can only tell you that the Russian Federation has no plans to wage war in 2025 as of now. Perhaps by the end of 2024, if nothing changes, they will rearrange. But right now, they have no such plans. But there are problems. And not so much with the support of society, because the opinion of an ordinary Russian is of little interest there. The issue is resources. This war is very expensive. And the resources are not unlimited. It may sound a little rude, but we are fighting for someone else's money, but they are fighting for theirs. And they are counting their money, even though it seems that they are not. And very meticulously," Budanov said.

At the same time, he said one has to be realistic about the transfer of the war to the enemy's territory, responding to a question from the audience. The question was asked by journalist, TV presenter, and now a soldier, Yehor Checherynda: is it possible to expect to win the war if you do not move it to the enemy's territory?

TV news anchor Yehor Checherynda
Photo: Max Trebukhov
TV news anchor Yehor Checherynda

"We can do this to an extremely limited extent. We cannot capture most of the Russian Federation, unfortunately, as of now," the chief intelligence officer said. 

According to Budanov, Ukraine will carry out targeted strikes against the enemy, increasing their number, but this will not solve all the issues.

"The issue can be resolved by, let's say, limited use on the enemy's territory. But this is all a ground component. Without a person physically entering enemy territory, there will be no nervousness there. There's nothing wrong with that, we've done it many times, and we're going to scale up this experience," Budanov said.

He described such raids by special forces into the Russian territory one of the department's achievements in 2023. He noted that most operations remain behind the scenes for security reasons in order to counter enemy information operations.

The successful operations that can be discussed in public include a number of evacuations of Ukrainians from different countries: Sudan, Syria, and the Gaza Strip. They are ongoing.

Budanov also mentioned the operation codenamed "Titmouse", the luring of a Russian pilot together with his helicopter.

"You might say, 'What's the big deal about hijacking a helicopter? But there have been no more than five such operations in the world. This is a rather painstaking and complex job. Starting from how to encourage a person to take such steps, and ending with how to pass through the enemy's territory, then ours, so that no one is shot down, and how to localise everyone else who was in that aircraft so that the pilot is not injured," Budanov said.

"I should probably also mention the successful operations to eliminate a certain number of war criminals on the territory of the Russian Federation, operations to strike various targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. This is, in principle, a very important part of our war, because, unfortunately, we cannot do without it. Whatever happens on the front line, the leadership of the Russian Federation is not interested in it. When something happens in Moscow, they start talking a little differently," he added.

Kyrylo Budanov
Photo: Max Trebukhov
Kyrylo Budanov

According to Budanov, the Main Intelligence Directorate is in constant communication with colleagues from other countries. And this cooperation is mutual.

"Since we are now in the active phase of conventional warfare, we need material, equipment, etc., which we receive from them. In return, they use our experience and certain materials that we share with them," he said.

Budanov added that the outstanding achievement of this year was the tremendous development in the field of unmanned aerial and maritime vehicles. They "have advanced significantly over the year before our eyes".

"The use of unmanned aerial vehicles is one of the important features of this particular war. Before this war, unmanned aerial vehicles of all types had never been used anywhere in the world in such volumes and for such a purpose. Our war, let's just say, [we] have become pioneers in this, and this experience is spreading very quickly."

"Nowadays, all countries that are interested in military issues are actively developing unmanned systems. Even African countries have started using them. This is a new step in the tactics of warfare in general," he concluded.

Photo: Max Trebukhov

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