Sociologists have investigated the importance of certain parameters in possible peace agreements for Ukrainians. It turned out that most Ukrainians are ready to accept the impossibility of joining NATO in exchange for ‘enhanced armed support’, according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Sociologists have formulated five dimensions-components of the ‘packages’ of agreements: security guarantees; EU membership; control over territories; language policy; and Ukraine's sovereignty.
For each of the five dimensions, 2-4 options were offered. The respondent was randomly assigned one level for each dimension and this was read out as a possible package of peace agreements. The respondent had to answer whether this package could be acceptable or was categorically unacceptable. In other words, each respondent was read a package of five items (and the packages were different for different respondents). In total, there were 96 different possible packages of agreements.
Security guarantees: if the peace package includes a complete rejection of joining NATO and without peacekeepers and additional weapons, there will be a parity of opinion - 44% in general can accept the package against 44% who are categorically against it. At the same time, even these 44% who can generally accept the rejection of NATO and the absence of peacekeepers/weapons can only be achieved by including certain positive points in a number of packages, such as EU membership or the return of certain territories to Ukraine's control (because some of the packages that included such a rejection also included EU membership and/or the return of territories). For example, if the rejection of NATO and the absence of peacekeepers/weapons is accompanied by a rejection of the EU, then support for the package will drop to 37% and the share of strong opponents will increase to 52%.
If the package includes certain security guarantees, then there will be more people who are ready to approve it. Moreover, the scenario that will receive the most support is not even NATO membership, but enhanced military support for Ukraine. For example, if NATO membership is postponed for 10-20 years, but Ukraine receives large amounts of weapons (air defence systems, aircraft, tanks, etc.), 54% are ready to accept the package, while 35% are strongly against it.
The package with NATO membership would be approved by 49% (38% strongly oppose), and the package with peacekeepers - by 47% (43% strongly oppose).
In the case of EU membership as part of the peace agreement, 55% are ready to support the package against 34% who would be strongly opposed.
If the package includes the return of the South of Ukraine, its attractiveness will increase to 50% (38% are strongly against), and if it includes the return of the entire territory with Donbas and Crimea - 57% (30% are strongly against).
