Senior officials in the administration of US President Joe Biden believe that the next four weeks will determine the outcome of russia's war against Ukraine. The long-term effects will affect the map of Europe for decades to come, writes the New York Times.
Officials still believe the war will be long and exhausting. However, they say it is crucial to supply Ukraine with as many new weapons as possible, especially long-range artillery and anti-artillery radars, to repel russia's offensive in East of Ukraine.
The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, discussed with allies worldwide that the next month would be crucial. In addition, they had telephone conversations with colleagues from different countries, including those that have heavy weapons.
According to officials, if russia can break into the East, Putin will be more likely to present it as a success of his "military operation" and lie that he "protected" someone. The US believes that in this way, he could use Donbas as a lever of pressure in all negotiations.
But if Ukrainian defenders stop the offensive, Putin will have to choose between sending even more forces to the war that could drag on for years or taking the negotiating table seriously. At the same time, the first option could mean the general mobilization of russians, which will be a huge political risk.
A high-ranking official from the Ministry of Defense of the USA called the next month a crucial turning point for Ukraine and russia. This phase of the battle is, to some extent, advantageous for russia, whose occupying forces are moving in open terrain, not cities. But the official said that the Pentagon believes that if Ukrainian forces have the necessary weapons and maintain high morale and motivation, they can stop russia's movement forward and push it back.
On condition of anonymity, the officials add that the whole of Ukraine and not just its eastern part has always been the primary goal for Putin. However, it is unlikely that he will ever be able to achieve it.
Yesterday Joe Biden announced a new military aid package to Ukraine that is worth $ 800m, and includes, among other things, howitzers and kamikaze drones.
The total military aid that the USA has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion exceeds $ 3bn.